Reality check

John Michael Greer is something as unusual as an archdruid, more specifically the Grand Archdruid of the Ancient Order of Druids in America (AODA). He is also a prolific writer on a wide variety of issues, from peak oil and UFOs to the Golden Dawn and the occult.

I had expected "The UFO phenomenon" to be a spooky book about inter-dimensional aliens hobnobbing with Bigfoot, but it turned out to be a relatively sceptical and almost scholarly look at the UFO phenomenon. In fact, if you are a "true believer" in aliens and government conspiracies, this book might really anger you! But then, it might also act as a reality check or antidote against too much UFOTV watching. Open-minded sceptics are perhaps the most natural category of readers for this particular Greer forte. The book is obviously based on scholarly studies of UFO beliefs, and similar studies about the sociology and history of science. The material is admirably summarized and easy to read - with the exception of one chapter dealing with UFO beliefs as they evolved during the 1980's and 1990's, when the phenomenon became too unwieldy for an easy summary.

Greer rejects both the Extraterrestrial Hypothesis (ETH) and the Null Hypothesis (NH). The ETH doesn't need a closer introduction. The NH is the idea that *all* UFOs are really misunderstood natural phenomena, hallucinations, etc. In other words, the position of the debunkers (Menzel, CSICOP, etc.) The ETH and NH are the two most prominent attempts at an explanation of the UFO phenomenon, at least in the United States. The author has a field day pointing out how absurd the debunking-at-any-cost really is. It seems everything can be blamed on Venus! The poor planet has been dragooned into service more than once by overeager sceptics. Greer's discussion about sociological "status panic" within the scientific community (p. 115) is a particularly good point. Once the scientific community has decided that a certain subject is "unscientific", every attempt by the excluded to actually become scientific will simply strengthen the resistance. While rejecting the NH-ite pseudo-sceptics, Greer's main target is the ETH, perhaps because this hypothesis is the most widespread.

[THE EXTRATERRESTRIAL HYPOTHESIS AND ITS PROBLEMS]

Some arguments against the ETH are pretty obvious. For instance, no material object can travel faster than the speed of light. Nor can physical craft appear or disappear at will, and the idea of "alien abduction" to breed "hybrids" is absurd since real aliens would have a DNA so vastly different from humans that human-alien hybrids would be impossible. It's also strange that the UFOs and their occupants never leave behind obviously alien physical artefacts, nor give us new scientific information.

Greer's main argument against the ETH, however, is cultural. The aliens simply don't look alien enough. On the contrary, virtually every theme in UFO lore was prefigured, sometimes by decades, in popularized science fiction literature. Greer's historical overview of the pulp fiction scene makes for fascinating reading! Thus, it turns out that even the seemingly novel and bizarre "alien abduction" stories harvested by Hopkins and Jacobs have clear antecedents in Cold War pulp fiction. Even more interesting is the cross-pollination between science fiction and occultism. Many pulp fiction themes can be traced to occult ideas, often derived from Theosophy. Sometimes the link between occultism and science fiction is direct, as in the Shaver Mysteries. Pulp fiction mogul Raymond Palmer was contacted by one Richard Shaver, who was (or claimed to be?) an occult visionary. The bizarre visions of Shaver were turned into lucrative SF stories by the enterprising Palmer. At other times the cultural influence is more indirect but still visible: the plot of the film "The Day the Earth Stood Still" has similarities with an earlier fictional story written by a Theosophist. It's also similar to Guy Ballard's claims to have met a real Venusian. And the years following the release of the film saw the rise of the contactee movement... Another interesting point is that UFOs sighted during the 1890's looked like airships - fictional airships, that is! The "flying saucer" seems to have been introduced in pop fiction already during the 1930's, much earlier than the first reported observations of saucer-shaped craft (1947).

Whatever UFOs might be, they certainly cannot be literal nuts-and-bolts spaceships from other solar systems - unless you are willing to explain away all difficulties by saying that the aliens deliberately cloak themselves in cultural symbols taken from Amazing Stories and similar sources (perhaps beings from Sirius, Orion or Antares really do like pulp fiction?).

[OTHER POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS]

In a later chapter, Greer discusses various alternatives to the ETH and NH. Perhaps UFOs are unknown natural phenomena, hallucinations induced by electromagnetism, secret government programs or even angels and demons? For completeness, Greer also mention some *very* exotic ideas, including the (admittedly sympathetic) notion that UFOs are large amoebae living in the stratosphere, and the (decidedly less sympathetic) notion that they are manned by Nazis from a secret hide-out near the South Pole! Greer has an obvious soft spot for controversial ufologist Jacques Valee, who pointed out similarities between modern UFO reports and ancient folklore. Valee also pointed to a more sinister possibility: the UFO phenomenon might be a gigantic hoax perpetrated on an unwary public by very human actors.

Greer's own solution to the UFO enigma is complex, but then, so is the phenomenon. He believes that we are really dealing with many different phenomena, united only by our cultural expectations. Many UFOs could be hitherto unknown natural phenomena (the "earth lights" made famous by Paul Devereux) or hallucinations induced by electromagnetic fields (a bit like Albert Budden's theory - see my review of his "Electric UFOs".) He also implies that some might be spiritual apparitions, since he discusses shamanism from a positive perspective. Besides, Greer is a Druid! Whatever UFOs might be, most observers project their cultural expectations on the various phenomena lumped together under the UFO designation. In the modern West, these expectations are almost inevitably moulded by mass-produced popular entertainment. In Africa, similar phenomena might be attributed to witches!

[THE MILITARY COVER-UP]

But just like Valee, Greer believes that the UFO phenomenon has a more shadowy, conspiratorial side. After all, the U.S. military and intelligence community seems to be unnaturally interested in the subject, while outwardly denying any involvement. This has led many ufologist to the conclusion that the USAF, the NSA and the CIA know that the UFOs are interplanetary craft - why else hide government intervention in the matter? Greer believes that the most physically-looking UFOs are actually secret military projects. There does indeed seem to be some evidence of this: the UFO tracked by Captain Mantell was most probably a Skyhook balloon, which was classified at the time. Many other UFOs have been black and triangular, and hence look suspiciously similar to Stealth bombers! The famed Area 51 in Nevada is a secret government facility for testing military airplanes, etc.

The denials of the authorities are really a kind of double bluff. On the one hand, the military must classify all observations of secret military aircraft, deny knowledge or debunk the observations (no matter how ineptly). On the other hand, the military can also hide behind the belief in the existence of UFOs. What better smokescreen for secret military experiments over populated areas than the belief that the military's balloons, planes or rockets are really inexplicable extraterrestrial craft? The silly-sounding denials from the proper authorities feed the belief that the military has something to hide - but this may be the very point of issuing the inept denials in the first place. People who believe that the government is hiding knowledge of aliens will look in all the wrong places - and be discredited in front of the public - while the real secrets (the Skyhooks, Stealths, etc) will remain secret.

Greer points out that a staggering amount of Cold War ufologists had ties to the military or the CIA. NICAP seems to have been particularly infested with "former" high-ranking CIA personnel. Indeed, these people eventually forced NICAP's leader Donald Keyhoe to resign. (As an aside, let me note that Keyhoe had a background in both the military and...pulp fiction.) Greer also point out that some of the debunkers had contacts with the intelligence services. Apparently, Donald Menzel never once proposed that a UFO might be a secret military aircraft... Why not? Greer further believes that outright provocations have taken place, as when the USAF's intelligence department recruited one ufologist (Moore) to report on another one (Bennewitz), who had inadvertently picked up and published secret NSA communications. These had eventually fallen into Soviet hands. In order to lure Moore into cooperation, the Air Force fed him false documents "exposing" a grand government conspiracy concerning UFOs!

I admit that these speculations are appealing. However, I also feel from the top of my head that they might have one major flaw. Are the U.S. authorities - not to mention authorities in other nations - really sufficiently clever to launch and sustain a double bluff for 60 years? We're talking about an establishment that went down to defeat in Vietnam, couldn't damage-control Watergate, were "long conned" by China's mercantilist trade policies, has a national debt the size of Olympus Mons and in general doesn't smack me as being very smart (Dan Quayle and Dubya, anyone?).

Unless, of course, the whole thing has become self-sustaining. Or gotten out of hand... Does the bluff really work if the general public believes in UFOs, believes the government is hiding something, and demands action to declassify the files?

[UFOs AND THE IDEA OF PROGRESS; SOME CRITICAL REMARKS]

In a concluding chapter, Greer discusses the connection between the ETH and the idea of progress. The ETH often exists in a religious or quasi-religious version, but it could also be given a secular slant. After all, the idea that there simply must be other advanced civilizations in the universe - perhaps more advanced than ourselves - is a staple of popular belief and is strong even among scientists and astronomers. The idea of advanced ETs is appealing to Western civilization, since it reflects our own (supposed) future of progress in perpetuity. (For further comments on this subject, see my review of "Rare Earth" by Ward and Brownlee.)

Greer points out that an industrial civilization needs fossil fuels, and it's easy to imagine an otherwise habitable planet which lacks them in sufficient amount. It's much more difficult to imagine a civilization which has fossil fuels in such abundance that it can cross the vastness of space dividing one solar system from another. (Greer doesn't discuss fusion.) As for our own future, Greer believes that the era of advanced modern civilization is basically over, due to peak oil and other factors. He therefore ends his book with the prediction that people will soon quit believing in UFOs. The UFOs had their day as a potent cultural symbol of a modern civilization hell-bent on ever progressing. The long emergency ahead will spawn other symbols, although the author doesn't discuss which these might be. (Druid symbols?)

Maybe. However, my own prediction is that we will first see a dramatic upsurge in UFO beliefs. After all, the aliens are supposed to have top-notch technology, including abundant energy sources. "Our" government is supposed to be hiding this fact from the people. Conclusion? The aliens are our saviours, they will bring us free energy, if we can only get rid of the Illuminati! The whole Chemtrail-Conspirituality milieu is the first wave of the future. Meanwhile, the sinister aspects of the UFO phenomenon, such as the alien abductions, will probably become even more popular. The aliens often warn about impending environmental disaster, their breeding of alien-human hybrids reflect public concerns about genetic engineering, etc. This doesn't sound like something that is going to go away any time soon.

Finally, I think Greer might underestimate the (often bizarrely brilliant) eclecticism of the conspiracist milieu. He derisively (and somewhat triumphantly) points out that David Icke's conspiracy theories are virtually identical to the plot in the fictional TV series "V". This is quite true, but what Greer has missed is that David Icke acknowledges this himself! As Michael Barkun points out in his scholarly study "A culture of conspiracy", conspiracists have a rather strange view of fiction - very often, they consider fiction to be fact. Icke even recommends his readers to watch "V" as evidence for his claims (I'm not joking). Note also how these people skilfully blend the ETH with the eminently sensible hypothesis favoured by Greer and Vallee. The rather elementary observation that the Stealth plane looks like a UFO is twisted by these people into the claim that the Stealth bomber was retro-engineered using UFOs as models!

Thus, in contrast to the author of this book, I think there's more of the same coming up. Perhaps John Michael Greer will have to write a sequel to "The UFO Phenomenon" around 2020? There will still be a market for this book. Or at least a need for a reality check...