Den verkliga trollfabriken

 

Något för TV4 att ta tag i, kanske?  

Stefan Löfvéns styrelsekollega skapade rysk påverkansoperation

Båtflyktingar

 

Trodde att det här var något slags konspirationsteori på X, men uppenbarligen inte. Det kommer alltså från svenska försvaret. Jag tänker på det där med Kaliningrad och båtflyktingarna. 

Min gissning är att det inte kommer att hända, eftersom ingen frivilligt skulle sätta sig på en sådan båt, och jag antar att Ryssland skulle få dåligt rykte i "tredje världen" om de tvångsrekryterade folk till ett sådant uppdrag, men helt säker kan man ju inte vara.

Irrationella beslut har fattats tidigare. Och inte bara av Ryssland...

Försvaret varnar för ryska hybridattacker

We are unstoppable

 

Credit: Albin Olsson

Here´s a scenario.

Let´s assume Russia takes the Suwalki corridor tomorrow morning. They threaten anyone who interfers with *massive* retaliation. Perhaps nukes. The corridor is Lithuanian and Polish territory. It connects the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad with Belarus, a close Russian ally. 

Does anyone seriously believe that NATO will risk a world war over this? I don´t. 

Turkey will be the first to declare that they won´t come to the aid of Poland and Lithuania. Except as "peace-makers", of course. "We can negotiate an agreement with the Russians". Turkey also happens to have the second largest military of any NATO member-state.

Then, Germany will fold. They never wanted the present war to begin with. Next, France. They always wanted to get rid of the Americans anyway. 

What will the United States do then? Exactly. As in exactly nothing. Sure, they will move some troops to Lithuania. But they won´t actually *do* anything...

But now imagine the opposite scenario: NATO bombs and finally destroys the Kerch bridge, which connects Crimea with Russia proper. Does anyone seriously believe that the Russians wouldn´t escalate? They could bomb the port of Constanta in Romania. Or take the Suwalki corridor...

The two sides aren´t equal. Russia is fighting for geopolitical survival. And, of course, domination.

The Western world is fighting for Conchita Wurst.

Draw your own conclusions.      

Going bananas in Kaliningrad

 

I´m sure this is a slightly esoterick comment on Kant´s first critique, or something to that effect... 

A special transportation operation

Overheard on Twitter: "It´s not a blockade of Kaliningrad, it´s a special transportation operation". I admit that was funny. The Lithuanian blockade itself, on the other hand, isn´t. It could be the single most important escalation from the Western side so far. So how come almost nobody in the media covers it? 

Putin might be bluffing about nuclear weapons, but is it really unthinkable that he could launch a conventional attack on Lithuania (a NATO member) if an internationally recognized Russian territory (not some obscure breakaway republic) is felt to be under threat? Note that the Kaliningrad exclave is surrounded at all sides (except the ocean side) by NATO member-states, and that it houses Russian submarines with nuclear missiles that can reach Stockholm in 40 minutes. 

I mean, what could possibly go wrong if an American ally threatens it? 

I hope NATO knows what they are doing. If not, well, it´s a dangerous world...