What Lindsey Graham doing?

 

Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio to break with Trump and Vance...when? 

Dark Brandon junior

 

This is bizarre shit even for the interwebs, geezus. 

Another kind of resignation

 

Everyone (sometimes secretely) hopes that everything will simply go back to Normality when the Republicans are defeated in the upcoming US midterm elections. Or at the very latest when Gavin Newsom becomes POTUS in 2028.   

Maybe. But what if *nothing changes*? What if Trump´s "isolationist" or "multi-polar" orientation isn´t a temporary aberration, but an objective necessity? He is pursuing that course very erratically, to be sure, but what if the course itself is baked into the cake at this point?

After all, Biden´s administration had all kinds of conflicts even with America´s allies, including the UK and France. And when Russia attacked Ukraine, Biden urged caution. Or compare Biden´s debacle in Afghanistan (c/o Trump) with Trump´s debacle in the Persian Gulf. The Biden admin was confrontational with China, as had Trump Mark 1. They even promoted the Wuhan lab leak theory!

In the background, we have the national debt crisis in the United States. Or the BRICS anti-dollarization moves. And what if oil and gas prices won´t go back to normal? 

What if the United States will prove incapable of shouldering the fiscal and military burdens of defending Europe against Russia or its East Asian allies against China? What if Democrats or Neo-Cons simply can´t restore the status quo before, say, 2016? Even if Russia is weakened by some kind of decisive setback in Ukraine, it´s still not obvious that this will strengthen the "rules-based liberal world order". Maybe it will simply strengthen China. I can see them (pro)claiming a Co-Prosperity Sphere in Siberia and the Russian Far East! 

Add to this the enormous problems in building new nuclear power plants or sustaining the AI-related data centers. I would glady trade the latter for the former, but what if even that won´t work? And then there´s the creeping demographic crisis, problems surrounding migration, new pandemics, and so on.

Maybe the world around 2040 will look pretty much the same no matter which political factions takes over post-Trump: a Potemkin America, a Russian Time of Troubles, a French-dominated Euro-Canadian alliance, and a very shaky Beijing-centric "new world order". And underneath this, large masses of African migrants and refugees...and perhaps some crazy rich White men trying to "geo-engineer" the atmosphere.

In case you wonder why I´m not *that* optimistic about the next 15 years. But sure, I could be wrong. I mean, Paul Ehrlich couldn´t predict the cost of tungsten, right?

J D Vance krossad?

 

Kanske lite tidigt att ta ut segern i förskott. 

Rent politiskt är Marco Rubio antagligen en "nykonservativ" som LARP-ar Trump-nationalist/populist för att hålla Den Store Ledaren (och "basen") på gott humör. Jag tror personligen att Vance egentligen är en ännu värre opportunist, så vad han skulle ta sig till i presidentsitsen går nog inte att förutsäga. Fråga Peter Thiel! Fast hans isolationistiska LARP verkar mer övertygande än många andras.

Ron DeSantis, slutligen, är antagligen också "nykonservativ" men med en märklig förmåga att tilltala de allra knäppaste populisterna (de som vill förbjuda elspisar eftersom det luktar klimatanpassning, et cetera). 2023-2024 tilltalade han även tidigare Trump-väljare som tröttnat på *den* gubbens ständiga idiosynkrasier. Vilket kanske är...ironiskt.

Blodbad 2028?   

J D Vance krossad

Wake up to politics

 

I´ve covered this before, but opinion polls supposedly suggest that most Trump/MAGA supporters are in favor of Operation Epic Fury. The number of MAGA Republicans who support the war is much larger than the number of non-MAGA Republicans who do so. This is true both in percentages and in absolute numbers. Only 3% of Republicans identify clearly as both MAGA and anti-war. From this, some gadflies conclude that there isn´t a "split in MAGA" over the Iran war. It´s all sound and (non-epic) fury from the legacy media, signifying nothing. 

However, there seems to be a problem with the relevant polls.  

Those who self-identify as MAGA usually take that to mean "100% support for Trump". The label is ideologically empty and is used to express extreme trust in the person of Donald J Trump. Those who oppose the Iran war will probably not identify as MAGA for that very reason. But this skews the result. If "MAGA" just means "I love Trump", then almost *by definition* MAGAs will be much less likely to oppose Trump´s policies on any issue. 

The writer of the first article linked below believe that the midterm elections *will* cause trouble for Trump since many new Trump voters in 2024 were independents and are likely to switch their allegiance (many of these might be opposed to the war or dissatisifed for other reasons). However, he believes that this isn´t the same thing as a major split in MAGA, since the MAGAs who are "Trumpier than Trump" (Steven Bannon, Tucker Carlson, MTG) command very little support.

I can´t help wondering if political commentators are simply talking pass each other. They have different definitions of what "MAGA" is supposed to be. The ideologically orthodox populists may be a minuscule group and perhaps nobody outside their circles gives a damn about what Bannon is saying, but if a larger group of independents leave the "MAGA coalition" (in the broader sense), Trump is in trouble anyway! And that´s true even if this particular group is smaller than the MAGA cultists for whom Trump simply can do nothing wrong. Elections can be decided by a few swing voters... 

Another interesting finding (second link) is that 26% of Republican voters believe that Trump started the Iran war to distract from the Epstein files, while a whopping 81% of Democrats think so. 

There is no MAGA split on Iran

Majority of Americans think Trump launched Iran war to cover up Epstein scandal

Our techno-populist future

 

Vance is a rather notorious Trump sycophant. It seems the Vice President has a sycophant all his own. The guy who wrote "Code Red" (and the article below). Translation: Peter Thiel wants to sell his techno-dystopian future to the American electorate as "populism". Let´s welcome the new techno-populist future! I´m sure it´ll be waaaaay better than the techno-bureaucratic future on offer from The Other Team...

This isn´t going very well, is it? 

Code Red: J D Vance, et cetera

Good grief

 

Please don´t tell me the Dems are seriously contemplating nominating Kamala Harris *again*?! 

I have no particular horse in this race (OK, maybe a cute little pony), but if anybody over there wants my advice, I would say that the "best" Dem ticket would be Newsom-Shapiro, while the "best" GOP ticket would be Haley-Rubio. Best from a European perspective, at least. In the long run, we´ll all be dead! 

But surely nobody thinks Harris can defeat Vance? Although I suppose there is a slight chance, since Vance - after all - is no Trump. But that can be remedied by the neo-GOP very explicitly making Vance the constitutional place holder for Trump (or Trump jr).  

Kamala Harris leads in average Dem polling

THOTs and assassins

 

THOT (That Hoe Over There) is a sexist meme associated with the Alt Right. So it´s kind of ironic that the biggest "THOT" alive is a supporter of...the very same Alt Right. Yes, that would be Nicki Minaj, who made some kind of semi-porn appearence at the recent TPUSA conference, claiming to be a newly minted Christian and de facto endorsing J D Vance for president. Leaked e-mails apparently shows that Charlie Kirk was a big fan of Nicki Minaj´s music. Which is strange for a Christian, if Minaj´s artistic output is as described.

The Catholic content-creator linked above wonders what´s up with TPUSA (now led by Erika Kirk) and Ms Minaj. The video features the *very* awkward moment when Minaj refers to Vance as "an assassin" when speaking with Erika Kirk on stage?! 

Geezus, and I certainly don´t mean the carpenter!

I admit that I don´t care *that* much about this, but it certainly shows what a complete vaste of space the US far right has become. But sure, you can have Nigeria, since you love it so much. Just leave Greenland to the adults in the room...

The Cassandra Protocol

 

The dancing cockroach picture...again!

A lot of buzz lately about an upcoming AI bubble collapse similar or worse than the 2008 financial crisis. I already linked to an essay by Richard Carrier about the problematique, and here we go again. No idea what the technical details mean, but it doesn´t look good. Apparently, a top investor who predicted the 2008 crash has decided to bet against Palantir (the leading tech company). 

I wonder about the political implications of a tech crash evolving into an economic depression in, say, 2028. Palantir´s owner Peter Thiel is the man behind J D Vance. How might a this impact the presidential elections in the United States? Then, we have the broader issues including China, Russia, Ukraine...

Not to mention all the hungry, angry people in the streets. This stuff worries me, tbh.  

The Cassandra Protocol

The left can´t meme

 

With apologies 

JMG on why the left can´t meme. Basic-basic, but perhaps somebody still needs to hear it? 

Of course, it´s also possible that we reached the end of the memetic era and that everybody will become much more serious from now on. The idea that 4chan autists had some kind of effect on the 2016 election was always an Alt Right conceit. I sense a certain amount of vanity protruding from the Great Leader, as well!

Maybe dank memes really are "so 2015"...

Why the left can´t meme

The future is Groyper

 

Or perhaps not. The essay below (by libertarian gadfly Richard Hanania) argues that the Republican party might get "Groyperized" and hence become even more populist (in the bad sense of that term), racist and conspiracist (including anti-Israel). The Groypers are a peculiar Alt Right subculture on the internet associated with the influencer Nick Fuentes. It does seem correct that Fuentes recently went from shunned fringe-Nazi to almost-respectable right-wing personality. Hanania argues that the apparent 2028 GOP frontrunner, J D Vance, must adapt to Groyperism or else face a hard populist backlash. 

Hanania also says that while it´s true that the Groypers are internet-based, such a movement can still influence or even change a political party. Well, I disagree. There are only two ways in which hardline populists can get influence. Either by forming a highly centralized organization IRL (not some chatbox on the web) and use it to capture the Republican party, the federal apparatus, and the like. Or by getting the tacit or open support of an establishment faction, but this will only happen if the populist agenda has become "structurally" (so to speak) necessary for that particular faction. 

If not, what will happen is what already took place in 2016: a wing of the establishment (in this case some of the "RINOs") will use populism to win elections, but then go for business-as-usual. Which is exactly why the first Trump administration was so ineffective. Trump seems more efficient this time around, but that´s obviously because some other establishment faction has decided that the US needs to become more authoritarian, using the power-hungry and vengeful president as their instrument. The "people" has nothing to do with it, and neither has some subculture of weirdos on X (frankly, the idea is ridiculous). 

For instance, if the GOP ever dumps Israel, it will be because of some elite interest in doing so, not because the "base" has suddenly become more, shall we say, "based" on the Jewish Question. If the world looks similar in 2029 to what it does in 2025, Vance as president will simply continue Trump´s policies, regardless of what rhetoric he may have spouted during an election campaign. This will include continued support for Israel, a willingness to take generous donations from Qatar, and even cheap immigrant labor so the Coca-Cola Company can use cane sugar to sweeten the drinks of the Great Leader emeritus (DJT).

I know that the Alt Right has long labored under the illusion that *they* elected Trump in 2016 (also a Democrat talking point) when actually it was White workers in blue wall states (hardly the main constituency of Irony Twitter) switching parties. Maybe the Groypers (the last surviving Alt Right faction?) have similar illusions about their present influence. So here is my prediction: there will never be an Incel Revolution.  

Can a Bannon-Groyper alliance derail Vance?

Why it probably gets worse after Trump

He´s running

 

J D Vance actually appropriated a satirical anti-Vance meme for Halloween. Does this mean that I can tweet it myself without risk of being arrested? Anyhow, this can only mean one thing: He´s running. As in run for president in 2028.

Hägring

 

Jag, när jag sitter på café och har åsikter

Aftonbladet hallucinerar. På en kylig oktobermorgon år 2025. Dessutom är rubriken grammatiskt inkorrekt. Mamdani är man. Det ska alltså stå "näste" president. Och hans "parti" är demokraterna, han har alltså inte ett eget särpräglat parti. Detta för att islamist-kramaren Mamdani faktiskt segrade i New York Citys demokratiska primärval, vilket har medfört att den "riktige" demokraten Andrew Cuomo tvingats ställa upp i borgmästarvalen som oberoende! Så den korrekta rubriken borde alltså vara: "USA:s näste president kommer aldrig att vara en islamist. Därför besöker Mamdanis kampanjstab Sverige".

Eller? :D 

PS. Okej, jag läste artikeln. Det visar sig att "Mamdanis parti" är...Democratic Socialists of America! Mamdani kan inte bli amerikansk president eftersom han är född i Uganda (jag antar att han alltså är indier), men enligt artikeln tänker DSA ställa upp en egen presidentkandidat år 2028.

Vilket inte heller stämmer. Kollade upp deras resolution. Den försöker ge intrycket att det handlar om det faktiska presidentvalet år 2028, men egentligen handlar det om primärvalen. I presidentvalen kommer de alltså att stödja den officielle demokraten. Vore ju ironiskt om det visar sig vara Andrew Cuomo.

Kort sagt, DSA agerar som alla andra vänstergrupper. De ständiga kurragömmalekarna, de opportunistiska manövrerna...poängen med resolutionen var antagligen att låta pseudo-radikala inför "basen" samtidigt som man fortsätter den sedvanliga linjen att arbeta inom demokraterna. Å andra sidan verkar det ju fungera. Jag menar, en medlem av DSA kanske blir borgmästare i New York City. Mamdani leder nämligen stort i opinionsmätningarna. 

Att Mamdani kan göra NYC mer socialistiskt eller ens socialdemokratiskt låter inte särskilt troligt. Alltså kommer han i fyra år tids att koncentrera sig på kulturkrigsfrågor. Vilket antagligen tilltalar hans "bas". Om det gör DSA:s eventuella kandidat i primärvalen 2028 mer valbar är kanske en annan fråga...

Dark Woke

 

Next Dem nominee? 

A lot of strange Gavin Newsom memes on social media right now, half of them probably posted by Newsom himself. The one´s that are not...well, trolls love to point out that Newsom´s entire family is White, while J D Vance´s is mixed race. They also dub the California governor "Dark Woke" and say he is on a mission from Dark Brandon (Biden) to avenge Hunter?! And so on.

Translation: the next US presidential election will be between...you guessed it...Newsom and Vance. 

In other news, Trump is apparently trying to arrest and prosecute John Bolton. Strangely enough, while flip-flopping on Ukraine...again. In a seemingly more Boltonite direction! 

If this continues, the next presidential shake-up might be much closer than 2028. 

Electable

 

It seems Gavin Newsom wants to become the Democratic nominee in 2028. He wants to win, too! Interesting, I suppose...  

Liberals torch "trash" Gavin Newsom, etc