Abductive reasoning

 

Remover of obstacles?

So the United States abducted one foreign head of state and killed another one. So far, the success rate seems to be 50/50. It worked in Venezuela, but the jury is still out on Iran. It certainly doesn´t *seem* to be working. 

Still, a 50% success rate is pretty high. Especially since the succesful example was in the US sphere of influence (a.k.a. backyard). Sure wonder how the Russians and Chinese are calculating the odds right now. For instance, would killing or abducting Zelensky work if your last name is Putin? What about Taiwan? 

Of course, the opposite is true as well. Could killing *Putin* work for Ukraine, for instance? And, more importantly, Ukraine´s backers...

How long before somebody starts calculating whether or not a direct hit at a certain white house close to the Potomac might yield geopolitical dividends? But thanx for the crude oil, I suppose. 

7 and 8

 

This is clearly some kind of cult. So we´re supposed to extend our natural life spans with some occult techniques in order to serve the cult longer? Yeah, so about that...

There seems to be fundies and fanaticos in every religion. Note also that the speaker is, ahem, conflating Amitayus and Amitabha. LOL.

Some geopolitical marginalia

 

- Geopolitics? You gotta be kidding,
I´m a cosmic Buddha!

So Trump is in the Forbidden City to sell Taiwan, Ukraine, the Iranian people and the workers in the Amerikan heartland down the river. Or something. His wayward brotherman Elon is there too. To make some bizniz. Chinese Communist Party hurr hurr hurr.

Sounds like the ChiComs have played the American "isolationists" in pretty much the same way they played the "globalists" for 40 years. 

Oh.

Unless the Donald does something unexpected? Maybe we should be careful what we wish for. Since we live in interesting times... 

The Taoist god who out-Buddha´d the Buddha

 

 

Three interesting videos on Chinese folk religion and its complex interaction with Buddhism and Taoism (here spelled Daoism). 

The closest thing to a high god in Han folk religion, the Jade Emperor, has been appropriated by both Buddhists and Taoists. In Taoism, the Jade Emperor occupies the second rung in the celestial hierarchy, below the three Taoist high gods. In Buddhism, he is identified with Indra, the king of the devas, who is said to be a Buddhist. Perhaps in retaliation, some Jade Emperor-ists (to coin a phrase) argue that their heavenly sovereign is actually a buddha and the teacher of all bodhisattvas! Indeed, he seems to have out-Buddha´d the Buddha himself... 

The second video is about Mazu, supposedly a real person (a shamaness from southern China) who became deified after her death. Today, the character of Mazu is used in PRC influence operations directed against Taiwan (where the goddess is very popular)! 

The third video is about the ghost festival with the "hell money"...

I admit that Chinese popular religion isn´t really my cup of green tea, but here you go. 

Trade off

 

Scott Carney believes that Trump traded Ukraine and Taiwan for Venezuela (a Russian and Chinese ally). There might absolutely be something to this speculation. The real question is whether Trump can pull it off. First, his administration seems split backstage between "isolationists" (or rather Western Hemisphere hegemonists) and a kind of retro-Neo-Cons with global ambitions. Second, Trump hasn´t actually occupied Venezuela with boots on the ground, so how is he supposed to run it or take its oil, if the current government simply decides to stay in power?

As matters stand now, geopolitical chaos is a more likely outcome than a neat division of the world between Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia. 

Negotiating genealogy

 

I´m not that well-versed in Confucianism, so this video about a purported direct lineal descendant of the famed Master Kong was actually interesting. The short story is that alleged descendants of Confucius held important positions at various imperial Chinese courts for centuries. 

But are their claims to be descended from the old sage really true? Here some skepticism in clearly in order, since the first "official" lineage-holder (known as the Duke of Yansheng) wasn´t appointed until 1,500 years after the time of Confucius. At one point in Chinese history, there seems to have been three "dukes", appointed by rival dynasties (one of them Mongol)!

Of course it´s fake. Some time ago, I read a Swedish book about fake genealogies and the "cults" they spawned among amateur researchers. Now, imagine if being a descendant of a certain famed person also carried very definite material and political benefits. Exaaactly.

Obviously the family trees in such a situation are going to be negotiated and re-negotiated (to use the current euphemism) until the point is proven. I suppose we could call them apocryphal (to use an older euphemism)... 

Geopolitik

 

Credit: US Army World Class Athlete Program

Det enda land som lyckats få Donald Trump att öppna gränserna?

USA vill hålla Kina borta från Marshallöarna

Invasionsplaner

 

Från Aftonbladet. Det man undrar över är om Trump i slutändan ens är beredd är att försvara Taiwan, Sydkorea eller Japan? Kommer den amerikanska imperiala nationalismen att övergå i ren isolationism? 

Bevis för Kinas planer på att invadera Taiwan

Struggling without a script?

 

Richard Hanania isn´t a scholar of genetics or demographics, obviously, but he does make some interesting observations and reflections here. The bottom line is that East Asians are genetically primed to be conformists, and therefore "struggle without a script" when social conformity comes unglued. Which may explain their extremely low birth rates, for instance.  

Why Asia stopped having kids

The East Asian package

The scam of slavery

 

It seems a new form of trafficking and slavery has developed in Southeast Asia. Hundreds of thousands of people from all over the world are virtually imprisoned in "scam centers" in Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia. Tricked by promises of good office jobs, they are forced to work with various Internet and phone scams. The centers are often controlled by Chinese crime gangs.

However, it seems that both China and Thailand have decided to move against the gangs after a high profile abduction of a Chinese actor (!) in Thailand (he was trafficked to Myanmar) and Thai fears that Chinese tourists might avoid their country unless something is done stat. The Chinese government is of course entirely hypocritical, due to the slave-like conditions in China´s seafood industry, not to mention Tibet and Xinjiang. I suppose the crime syndicates messed with the wrong officials.

The Myanmar military is apparently also sick and tired of the scam centers at their side of the porous Thailand-Myanmar border, since they have decided to aid the Thai efforts to clean up the place. So I suppose you could say that this story has a "happy ending" of sorts...for now. Something tells me the scamming will continue elsewhere. 

Speaking of which...

The YouTube clip above tells a somewhat bizarre story connected to the scam center issue, this time from Cambodia. An attention-seeking influencer from Taiwan staged an incident in Cambodia, claiming to have been kidnapped and tortured by a gang operating a center. The Cambodian authorities weren´t amused and sentenced both him and an accomplice to a long prison sentence. Even the Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Manet condemned the hoax. One thing the YouTube clip doesn´t tell us is whether or not the Cambodian police also took action against the scam centers...

Slavery never really went away, did it?  

Tens of thousands could be held in illegal scam compounds

Thousands rescued from illegal scam compounds

Equations

 

The geopolitical equations of the incoming Trump administration don´t add up. Trump wants (or says he wants) a swift solution to the war in Ukraine, presumably so he can concentrate on challenging Iran in the Middle East and China pretty much everywhere. But Iran and China are Russian allies. So why should Russia make peace with Trump, so he can go after their chief backers instead? Indeed, what would a Ukrainian peace plan even look like in a situation in which Russia has momentum, both on the battlefield and economically? I suppose it´s *possible* that the Russians might stop the war if given a really large chunk of Ukraine, Crimea and Donbass say, but why should the Russians just give up additional territory without a fight? They currently control a far larger area. If I had been Putin, I would simply ignore Trump and Rubio. Or perhaps “play” them a bit. And continue the war, period.

What could the United States do in such a situation? They could tell Zelensky to surrender and accept a neutral or Finlandized rump Ukraine. But this will probably lead to serious strains within the Western alliance, including both the EU and NATO. France and Germany have often been at odds with the United States (under both Trump and Biden). This would resurface, with a vengeance, even if the present governments of those nations remain in power. The opposition is pro-Russian. And then there´s Turkey, the strongest military power within NATO after the United States, but clearly more beholden to Putin or Hamas than to whoever thinks he´s bigwig in DC this time around.

The second line of option would be for Trump to reinvite Mike Pompeo and the war hawks to his admin, change its policy, and go all in for a confrontation with Russia. But the traditional geopolitics in such cases is to split Russia and China from each other. Can the US really take on both at the same time? And why should China break with Russia and line up with the United States? If Beijing ever moves against Putin, they will demand a big prize for their U-turn. Taiwan, for starters! Also, the European nations would have to rearm themselves. Is that really likely under present circumstances? Take Germany for instance, this fraudulent “economic powerhouse” the “Green transition” of which is really brokered by Russian oil and gas. Its military is so weak that Poland could easily defeat it in a shooting war. Besides, an aggressive NATO posture against Russia will probably lead to Turkey and Hungary leaving, making the military alliance look like a joke.

There could still be some openings for the Western alliance. The Sunni Arabs probably don´t want to be dominated by Iran or Turkey. Somewhat ironically, this marriage of convenience might save Israel! Japan might fear a dominant Sinosphere in Asia. But otherwise? Once again: The geopolitical equations simply don´t add up.

2025 might become a very bleak year. 

Mistake á la Mossad?

 

Some musings by the Supreme Dark Lord on the recent Israeli attacks on Hizbollah in Lebanon. 

He obviously has a point, since attacks of this kind are unlikely to have any military significance, and the psychological impact on a militant cadre organization of religious fanaticos (as opposed to civilians) probably isn´t very large either. Add to that the global distrust against high tech gadgets that might follow in their wake. Tech bubble, anyone?

The transhumanist agenda was probably DOA anyway, but I´m sure the cultists will continue for another 20 years or so, until they drop dead, their heads preserved for posterity in a cryo-chamber somewhere on a melting glacier in Greenland, but I´m talking too much...

Pager terror attacks 

Assassination insurance

 

This is apparently Donald Trump´s "assassination insurance". Also know as running mate. Doesn´t this guy understand that Russia is a Chinese proxy? Or that the Russians want NATO to de facto leave Europe? 

J D Vance on Ukraine, China and more

World War III watch

 

Scenario in  2025? China attacks Taiwan, North Korea attacks South Korea, Iran attacks Israel, Russia attacks Ukraine even harder than before.

Will the West be able to defend itself? Will it even *want* to? With all the pro-Russian right-wing populists and Stalinoids, the "Woke" left-liberal Hamas-lovers who want collective suicide anyway, and the BAU centrists who think "war" means banning some troll accounts on Twitter...  

Cajones

 

Somewhat surprisingly, the Xwitter troll Richard Hanania actually says some interesting things in this article on why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is unlikely (albeit not impossible). 

China doesn´t have the balls to invade Taiwan

Electioneering

 

The Democrats are angry at Speaker Johnson for refusing to put a Ukraine military aid package to a vote in the House. 

Oh.

Is this the same Johnson who became speaker after the Democrats blocked with Matt Gaetz in a "social fascist moment" á la Prussia 1931 to remove the more moderate Republican Speaker McCarthy? Well, cry me a river!

Now, the Biden Administration - sources say - have told Ukraine not to bomb the Russian oil industry with their drones, since this could lead to steep rises of the oil price. And therefore gasoline prices in the United States. Something the Biden Admin want to avoid at all costs before the election. 

Meanwhile, Chuck Shumer called for regime change in Israel, and Biden didn´t really oppose the call (although he didn´t really support it either). Presumably this is an attempt to woo the "Uncommitted" and convince them to back the incumbent.

Something´s wrong when important foreign policy decisions are held hostage (pardon my French) to electioneering and untractable bickering in Congress. With allies like this, we probably don´t need any enemies! Perhaps it´s a good thing that the best semi-conductors are made in Taiwan, South Korea have a really good arms industry and Japan (I assume) has money. If only India or China could come to their senses, too. We have to start shopping around for a new hegmon. 

Then, nobody would have to pay attention to what´s happening in DC...    

Change we can believe in

 

I assumed this was the pro-Chinese candidate? Note the absurd family name of the Chinese spokeswoman. Note also the name of the Filipino president...

Some things never change, it seems! 

Rift between China and the Philippines?

The fire ant next time

- Have you heard of the invasive fire ant?
It recently established itself on Sicily!
- Oh, I know, but I´m more interested in
Chinese spy balloons!

 A new problem in the wake of the climate crisis. Yes, it´s the world´s worst ant species, coming right at ya! 

Invasive fire ants have made it to Europe

Två timmars lunchrast

Ta inga råd från dessa män!
Credit: Björn Christian Törrissen

Aftonbladet hånar Kinas trollarmé. För en gångs skull har denna vedervärdiga tidning faktiskt en poäng! Det hela känns mer som Nordkorea än Kina...

Kinas trollarmé känns faktiskt slapp

I helvetets förgård

Förståsigpåarna har iofs förutsagt Kinas nära stundande kollaps i över 20 år nu, men det kanske är dax, med tanke på alla andra problem världen går igenom just nu? Och det verkar ju vara terminalkrisen...

Observera förresten att nedanstående inte handlar om klimatet eller pandemier, utan om mer "klassiska" ekonomiska och politiska problem.

Välkommen till helvetets förgård!

Här är krisen som borde oroa mer än Sveriges