Invasionsplaner

 

Från Aftonbladet. Det man undrar över är om Trump i slutändan ens är beredd är att försvara Taiwan, Sydkorea eller Japan? Kommer den amerikanska imperiala nationalismen att övergå i ren isolationism? 

Bevis för Kinas planer på att invadera Taiwan

Struggling without a script?

 

Richard Hanania isn´t a scholar of genetics or demographics, obviously, but he does make some interesting observations and reflections here. The bottom line is that East Asians are genetically primed to be conformists, and therefore "struggle without a script" when social conformity comes unglued. Which may explain their extremely low birth rates, for instance.  

Why Asia stopped having kids

The East Asian package

The scam of slavery

 

It seems a new form of trafficking and slavery has developed in Southeast Asia. Hundreds of thousands of people from all over the world are virtually imprisoned in "scam centers" in Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia. Tricked by promises of good office jobs, they are forced to work with various Internet and phone scams. The centers are often controlled by Chinese crime gangs.

However, it seems that both China and Thailand have decided to move against the gangs after a high profile abduction of a Chinese actor (!) in Thailand (he was trafficked to Myanmar) and Thai fears that Chinese tourists might avoid their country unless something is done stat. The Chinese government is of course entirely hypocritical, due to the slave-like conditions in China´s seafood industry, not to mention Tibet and Xinjiang. I suppose the crime syndicates messed with the wrong officials.

The Myanmar military is apparently also sick and tired of the scam centers at their side of the porous Thailand-Myanmar border, since they have decided to aid the Thai efforts to clean up the place. So I suppose you could say that this story has a "happy ending" of sorts...for now. Something tells me the scamming will continue elsewhere. 

Speaking of which...

The YouTube clip above tells a somewhat bizarre story connected to the scam center issue, this time from Cambodia. An attention-seeking influencer from Taiwan staged an incident in Cambodia, claiming to have been kidnapped and tortured by a gang operating a center. The Cambodian authorities weren´t amused and sentenced both him and an accomplice to a long prison sentence. Even the Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Manet condemned the hoax. One thing the YouTube clip doesn´t tell us is whether or not the Cambodian police also took action against the scam centers...

Slavery never really went away, did it?  

Tens of thousands could be held in illegal scam compounds

Thousands rescued from illegal scam compounds

Equations

 

The geopolitical equations of the incoming Trump administration don´t add up. Trump wants (or says he wants) a swift solution to the war in Ukraine, presumably so he can concentrate on challenging Iran in the Middle East and China pretty much everywhere. But Iran and China are Russian allies. So why should Russia make peace with Trump, so he can go after their chief backers instead? Indeed, what would a Ukrainian peace plan even look like in a situation in which Russia has momentum, both on the battlefield and economically? I suppose it´s *possible* that the Russians might stop the war if given a really large chunk of Ukraine, Crimea and Donbass say, but why should the Russians just give up additional territory without a fight? They currently control a far larger area. If I had been Putin, I would simply ignore Trump and Rubio. Or perhaps “play” them a bit. And continue the war, period.

What could the United States do in such a situation? They could tell Zelensky to surrender and accept a neutral or Finlandized rump Ukraine. But this will probably lead to serious strains within the Western alliance, including both the EU and NATO. France and Germany have often been at odds with the United States (under both Trump and Biden). This would resurface, with a vengeance, even if the present governments of those nations remain in power. The opposition is pro-Russian. And then there´s Turkey, the strongest military power within NATO after the United States, but clearly more beholden to Putin or Hamas than to whoever thinks he´s bigwig in DC this time around.

The second line of option would be for Trump to reinvite Mike Pompeo and the war hawks to his admin, change its policy, and go all in for a confrontation with Russia. But the traditional geopolitics in such cases is to split Russia and China from each other. Can the US really take on both at the same time? And why should China break with Russia and line up with the United States? If Beijing ever moves against Putin, they will demand a big prize for their U-turn. Taiwan, for starters! Also, the European nations would have to rearm themselves. Is that really likely under present circumstances? Take Germany for instance, this fraudulent “economic powerhouse” the “Green transition” of which is really brokered by Russian oil and gas. Its military is so weak that Poland could easily defeat it in a shooting war. Besides, an aggressive NATO posture against Russia will probably lead to Turkey and Hungary leaving, making the military alliance look like a joke.

There could still be some openings for the Western alliance. The Sunni Arabs probably don´t want to be dominated by Iran or Turkey. Somewhat ironically, this marriage of convenience might save Israel! Japan might fear a dominant Sinosphere in Asia. But otherwise? Once again: The geopolitical equations simply don´t add up.

2025 might become a very bleak year. 

Mistake á la Mossad?

 

Some musings by the Supreme Dark Lord on the recent Israeli attacks on Hizbollah in Lebanon. 

He obviously has a point, since attacks of this kind are unlikely to have any military significance, and the psychological impact on a militant cadre organization of religious fanaticos (as opposed to civilians) probably isn´t very large either. Add to that the global distrust against high tech gadgets that might follow in their wake. Tech bubble, anyone?

The transhumanist agenda was probably DOA anyway, but I´m sure the cultists will continue for another 20 years or so, until they drop dead, their heads preserved for posterity in a cryo-chamber somewhere on a melting glacier in Greenland, but I´m talking too much...

Pager terror attacks 

Assassination insurance

 

This is apparently Donald Trump´s "assassination insurance". Also know as running mate. Doesn´t this guy understand that Russia is a Chinese proxy? Or that the Russians want NATO to de facto leave Europe? 

J D Vance on Ukraine, China and more

World War III watch

 

Scenario in  2025? China attacks Taiwan, North Korea attacks South Korea, Iran attacks Israel, Russia attacks Ukraine even harder than before.

Will the West be able to defend itself? Will it even *want* to? With all the pro-Russian right-wing populists and Stalinoids, the "Woke" left-liberal Hamas-lovers who want collective suicide anyway, and the BAU centrists who think "war" means banning some troll accounts on Twitter...  

Cajones

 

Somewhat surprisingly, the Xwitter troll Richard Hanania actually says some interesting things in this article on why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is unlikely (albeit not impossible). 

China doesn´t have the balls to invade Taiwan

Electioneering

 

The Democrats are angry at Speaker Johnson for refusing to put a Ukraine military aid package to a vote in the House. 

Oh.

Is this the same Johnson who became speaker after the Democrats blocked with Matt Gaetz in a "social fascist moment" á la Prussia 1931 to remove the more moderate Republican Speaker McCarthy? Well, cry me a river!

Now, the Biden Administration - sources say - have told Ukraine not to bomb the Russian oil industry with their drones, since this could lead to steep rises of the oil price. And therefore gasoline prices in the United States. Something the Biden Admin want to avoid at all costs before the election. 

Meanwhile, Chuck Shumer called for regime change in Israel, and Biden didn´t really oppose the call (although he didn´t really support it either). Presumably this is an attempt to woo the "Uncommitted" and convince them to back the incumbent.

Something´s wrong when important foreign policy decisions are held hostage (pardon my French) to electioneering and untractable bickering in Congress. With allies like this, we probably don´t need any enemies! Perhaps it´s a good thing that the best semi-conductors are made in Taiwan, South Korea have a really good arms industry and Japan (I assume) has money. If only India or China could come to their senses, too. We have to start shopping around for a new hegmon. 

Then, nobody would have to pay attention to what´s happening in DC...    

Change we can believe in

 

I assumed this was the pro-Chinese candidate? Note the absurd family name of the Chinese spokeswoman. Note also the name of the Filipino president...

Some things never change, it seems! 

Rift between China and the Philippines?

The fire ant next time

- Have you heard of the invasive fire ant?
It recently established itself on Sicily!
- Oh, I know, but I´m more interested in
Chinese spy balloons!

 A new problem in the wake of the climate crisis. Yes, it´s the world´s worst ant species, coming right at ya! 

Invasive fire ants have made it to Europe

Två timmars lunchrast

Ta inga råd från dessa män!
Credit: Nicor

Aftonbladet hånar Kinas trollarmé. För en gångs skull har denna vedervärdiga tidning faktiskt en poäng! Det hela känns mer som Nordkorea än Kina...

Kinas trollarmé känns faktiskt slapp

I helvetets förgård

Förståsigpåarna har iofs förutsagt Kinas nära stundande kollaps i över 20 år nu, men det kanske är dax, med tanke på alla andra problem världen går igenom just nu? Och det verkar ju vara terminalkrisen...

Observera förresten att nedanstående inte handlar om klimatet eller pandemier, utan om mer "klassiska" ekonomiska och politiska problem.

Välkommen till helvetets förgård!

Här är krisen som borde oroa mer än Sveriges

From Andorra with love

An entertaining clip about an urban legend I never heard about, the story of "the man from Taured", supposedly an inter-dimensional traveler of some sort. Below, a link to the Wiki entry on this particular tall tale (which may be very freely based on a true story). I think the Andorra business gives the game away completely, but maybe that´s just me... 

John Zegrus

Mr Chang, I presume?

 

UnHerd´s YouTube channel, featuring Freddie Sayers, has interviewed Chris Miller, an expert on the microchip situation and its geopolitical consequences. Still, Miller´s research into the question does give us *some* ground for optimism, although the stakes are quite high!

The government-connected Taiwanese company TSMC has a virtual global monopoly on high-quality microchips. Most such chips are made at one single location in the world (let that sink in), the place in question being TSMC´s foundry at the Hsinchu Science Park on Taiwan (a foundry is a special industrial plant for the production of microchips). The entire world economy is dependent on the semiconductors produced there. Microchips, after all, are found pretty much everywhere: computers, I-phones, microwave ovens, but also cars or military technology. What would happen if Taiwan is attacked by China tomorrow morning and the foundry is destroyed? A world without high tech semiconductors would be plunged into a global crisis similar to the Great Depression. And a world in which China controls the entire semiconductor industry (by capturing the Hsinchu plant) would perhaps be even worse! And building a new foundry somewhere else would, while not impossible, be an extremely expensive undertaking.

Still, the situation isn´t as bleak as I first expected. While the foundry is Taiwanese, the machines employed in the complicated manufacturing process are made in the United States, Japan and the Netherlands. Thus, even if China would somehow capture the semiconductor plant, they can´t get the technology to make it work (the machines need to be replaced quite often). The United States, by contrast, could – albeit with difficulty – build a new foundry on its own territory, and equip it with tools made in America. And at present, the US is engaged in a creeping blockade against China´s ability to import and/or manufacture cutting edge technology from the West and its allies. The goal is to create a kind of microchip alliance between the United States, Taiwan and Japan (and, I suppose, the Netherlands). The long term goal of this alliance would be to stop the Chinese from developing Artificial Intelligence, or at least cripple their ability to compete with the American sphere of influence.

That being said, the problems are huge, too. No surprise there! For instance, smuggling microchips isn´t particularly hard. Russia gets chips through nations like Turkey or Kazakhstan, which don´t care about the US sanctions. And, somewhat ironically, from China. Chris Miller points out that China doesn´t fundamentally care about Taiwan´s semiconductor capacity anyway: the goal to “re-unite” Taiwan with China existed before semiconductors were even invented, after all. It wouldn´t change even if TSMC would build a secret plant in Alaska or whatever. Miller estimates the risk of an armed confrontation between the United States and China over Taiwan at 20% within the next five years.

Sayers also points out a more general problem with the Western attitude to things: instead of relying on our own resources and government power, the Western elites have a tendency to “offshore” everything for short term gain (in the name of the hallowed free market), creating geopolitical problems further down the road. Taiwan may be a Western ally, but in hindsight, perhaps a foundry in Texas would have been a better idea? (The founder of TSMC, Morris Chang, used to work for Texas Industries!) So the next great depression and a People´s Liberation Army equipped with sophisticated AI might still be just around the corner…

One problem not mentioned in UnHerd´s interview is climate change. The Taiwanese foundry run into problems a couple of years ago due to water shortages, which in turn were caused by global climate change affecting the weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Presumably, these kinds of problems could also affect foundries in, say, Japan or the United States.

That being said, I suppose a dose of cautious optimism is good from time to time. The honeybees are still around, too.    

CIA asset

 

“Dalai lama” is a book in Swedish about the Tibetan god-king. The author is Bertil Lintner, a Swedish foreign correspondent resident in Thailand. Lintner met and interviewed the Dalai Lama a couple of times.

While his book is about 100% pro-Tibetan/anti-Chinese, it´s not a pure hagiography of the exiled Tibetan leader. Quite the contrary, Lintner reveals that the peaceful Buddhist “socialist” was once a CIA asset, and that the CIA conducted a large-scale secret war against China using armed Tibetans as proxies. The Dalai Lama can´t have been unaware of the situation. Indeed, the escape of the Dalai Lama from Chinese-occupied Tibet in 1959 was aided and abetted by the CIA.

When Lintner met the Dalai Lama for the first time in 1984, the Tibetan leader revealed that he originally wanted to go into exile in Burma (Myanmar), a predominantly Buddhist nation which at the time was neutral. However, the Burmese turned him down, so the Dalai Lama went to India instead. There is just one problem with this story: how on earth could the Dalai Lama´s traveling party on the run in Tibet get a message across to the Burmese government? The method used, or so Lintner believes, was radio communications with the CIA at Okinawa (then controlled by the United States). The Americans then radioed Rangoon. Officially, none of this happened, and the Dalai Lama supposedly sent a messenger on foot (or was it yak) to India to ask for asylum there – something Lintner believes can´t have happened, the whole thing being too risky. So the contacts with the Indian government probably also went through Okinawa.

The Dalai Lama had to call off the armed struggle in 1974 (I think), due to the thaw between the United States and China (the US needed China as an ally to contain the Soviet Union). It seems he successfully transitioned to a peace apostle and international lobbyist after that, and no longer calls for a fully independent Tibet, but the Chinese government obviously still see him as a potential threat to the “unity of China”.

Lintner wonders what will happen when the Dalai Lama passes away. He is 87 years old, and although he has stepped down from his political positions in the Tibetan exile government (based in McLeod Ganj close to Dharamshala in India), most Tibetans still see him as their rightful leader. Traditionally, the new Dalai Lama is appointed through a peculiar system in which a small boy is found by monks from the Geluk sect of Tibetan Buddhism and declared to be the reincarnation of the former Dalai Lama, but this means that it takes decades before the new Dalai Lama can start functioning as a real leader. Lintner fears that the Chinese Communist regime will “find” their own “Dalai Lama”, in effect setting up a kind of anti-Pope, something they already done with the Panchen Lama. The Dalai Lama may have tried to reform the system, perhaps proposing that the Tibetan government in exile becomes wholly secularized, but it´s possible that the traditional-minded Tibetans will refuse to accept such reforms.

As for China, the only Chinese Communist leader who has expressed any kind of understanding for the plight of Tibet is Hu Jintao, who seems to have been finally purged from the CCP leadership in 2022. Everything points to repression in Tibet becoming worse in the near future. Lintner speculates that the armed struggle may erupt again after the current Dalai Lama is gone, since an important Tibetan exile organization, the Tibetan Youth Congress, is more militant and demands full independence. I also wonder how the creeping neo-cold war between the PRC and the US will affect the Tibetan question. The Dalai Lama has met all US presidents since George Bush senior (except Donald Trump), so the United States clearly haven´t forgotten their old allies in this particular geopolitical theatre…

If Swedish is a language you can actually read, “Dalai lama” is a good introduction to modern Tibetan history and politics (the book is 170 pages short). And, of course, to the life of the 14^th Dalai Lama. One thing the book doesn´t describe very well are the actual religious beliefs of Tibetan Buddhism, but then, that´s an extremely complex topic and I don´t fault a foreign correspondent for not understanding them!

Recommended.

You can´t defend globalism by globalist methods

 

Credit: @sabineko_2 (Twitter)

The European nations are running short of ammunition to send to Ukraine. Germany is one example. Hunters, sport shooters and others have had increasing difficulty getting hold of ammo for their chosen gun-wielding pursuits. And guess who is *making* the ammunition? Yes, that would be China. Mainland China, that is! 

Let that sink in. The ammunition used by the EU to support Ukraine´s resistance against Russia is made in China, a Russian ally?! Indeed, for all we know, Russia might be a *proxy* for China...

So the only way to defend globalism in Ukraine is to break with globalism? Deal! I can live with that. We could support Taiwan instead. Or Japan. Or how about producing the stuff ourselves? 

Just an idea, you know.

 

An observation

Joe Biden is a better incarnation of the Mad Man Doctrine than Donald Trump. Who knew?

Halvledarna nu igen

Halvledarna nu igen! Jag trodde vi satt säkra så länge Taiwan hade vatten (och världens största halvledarfabrik). Och de hade problem med vattnet p.g.a. klimatförändringar. Och kanske problem med Kina p.g.a. geopolitiska dito. 

Tyvärr behöver de neon också.

Och ädelgasen produceras i - ni gissade rätt - Ukraina... 

Krisen förvärras efter Rysslands invasion av Ukraina

Hoppsan

Ortega fick visst memot till slut... 

Nicaragua bryter med Taiwan