Predictions

 

Credit: Arunraj Foundation

Maybe I already "predicted" this, but for the record: I don´t think Russia is crazy enough to launch an actual military attack on a NATO nation. 

If they attack anything outside Ukraine, my guess is Moldova or Svalbard. They are quasi-Western and non-NATO territories already controlled by half by the Russians (Transnistria and Barentsburg, respectively). But even more likely is "more of the same": cyber-sabotage, influence operations, perhaps blowing up a few arms depots.  This conflict is going to be be decided in Ukraine...or in European elections.

Or perhaps American ones. 

Down and out at Kaliningrad

 

Noterar att Aftonbladets artiklar om de jättehemska, ultra-konkreta (kärnvapen)hoten från Ryssland mot Sverige är låsta. Av vilket jag drar slutsatsen att ryssen inte kommer att attackera oss. Åtminstone inte denna vecka...

A special transportation operation

Overheard on Twitter: "It´s not a blockade of Kaliningrad, it´s a special transportation operation". I admit that was funny. The Lithuanian blockade itself, on the other hand, isn´t. It could be the single most important escalation from the Western side so far. So how come almost nobody in the media covers it? 

Putin might be bluffing about nuclear weapons, but is it really unthinkable that he could launch a conventional attack on Lithuania (a NATO member) if an internationally recognized Russian territory (not some obscure breakaway republic) is felt to be under threat? Note that the Kaliningrad exclave is surrounded at all sides (except the ocean side) by NATO member-states, and that it houses Russian submarines with nuclear missiles that can reach Stockholm in 40 minutes. 

I mean, what could possibly go wrong if an American ally threatens it? 

I hope NATO knows what they are doing. If not, well, it´s a dangerous world...