Nere för räkning

Uträknad?

 

Jag stödjer som bekant Ukraina, men jag måste säga att den pro-ukrainska propagandan i våra kära massmedier ibland är direkt pinsam. Här är din översättningsguide…

”Putin har inte synts till på över ett år” = Han lever och har hälsan.

”Mariupol är Putins enda seger” = Putin har på under ett år krossat Ukrainas ekonomi, ockuperat den region som har flest naturtillgångar och några av de bördigaste områdena, drivit miljontals människor på flykt och attackerar ständigt landets städer och hamnar med drönare som Ukraina inte kan skjuta ned.

”Mariupols försvarare har evakuerats” = Azov-bataljonen har kapitulerat och de tillfångatagna soldaterna förts till rysskontrollerat område.

”Putin blir alltmer internationellt isolerad. Han vågade inte närvara i Johannesburg” = Nä, men han skickade Lavrov istället. Toppmötet i Joburg kommer att skapa världens största handelsblock, dominerat av Kina och Ryssland. Nästa BRICS-möte hålls 2024 i Moskva.

”Sanktionerna har krossat Rysslands ekonomi” = Whatever, whenever.

”Putin har tvingats vända sig till Iran och Nordkorea för att få ammunition, missiler och drönare” = Putin har alltså tillgång till ammunition, missiler och drönare.

”Ukraina kommer att få F-16-plan från västvärlden” = Dessa kommer att kunna sättas in i striderna först 2026. Eller var det 2027? Undrar vad som händer om Putin bombar flygfälten med drönare?

”Ryssland har förlorat så och så många soldater” = Ukraina har förlorat lika många. Och Ukraina har en mindre befolkning.

”Prigozhins kuppförsök har kraftigt försvagat Putin” = Prigozhin vem?

”Putin har snart inga vänner kvar” = Förutom Kina, Indien, Brasilien, Saudi-Arabien, Turkiet, råvarurika länder i Afrika, och så vidare. Men okej, han är ovän med Uffe Kristersson och den där Mussolini-kvinnan i Italien. Och Azov förstås.

”Putin skickar otränade, gamla eller handikappade soldater till fronten. Och så kriminella legoknektar på det” = Ukraina klarar inte av att besegra en armé bestående av otränade, gamla eller handikappade soldater (eller kriminella legoknektar).

”MEN OM DONALD TRUMP VINNER PRESIDENTVALET I USA KAN ALLT VARA FÖRLORAT” = Ja, okej, det här *kanske* är sant. Såvida inte Trump bara yrar som vanligt. Vilket inte kan uteslutas. Heller.  

Spring offensive

Credit: Durik1980

It´s hardly a secret that this blog supports Ukraine against the Russian aggression. However, I frequently find myself bemused by the absurd propaganda in the Western media. Russia is constantly on the brink of collapse, Putin is presumably on the verge of a psychic break-down, and somehow (don´t ask too many details) he is constantly “losing the war”. For about eight months now, we´ve been hearing about the fabulous Ukrainian “spring offensive” which was supposed to miraculously reconquer all lost territory in one single swoop (lost territory which somehow doesn´t really exist anyway, since Russia has apparently been losing the war since day one or something).

That the “spring offensive” isn´t going very well hardly comes as a surprise, since the Ukrainians couldn´t even throw the Wagner Group out of Bakhmut despite almost a year of heavy fighting. Indeed, the Russians seems to have stopped about half of the planned offensive by simply blowing up that huge dam! Let´s be honest: at present, Ukraine can´t even embark on a successful “spring offensive” against Swedish chocolate! (The Ukrainian government wants everyone to boycott Mondelez, which owns Marabou.) Which brings me to the recent mutiny of the Wagner Group…

Two interpretations are possible. One is that Russia is on the verge of collapse, that Putin will suffer an emotional breakdown any day now, and (of course) that they are losing the war! Another is that the Putin regime has been *strengthened* by its handling of the mutiny, and the complete failure of Prigozhin to accomplish anything important at all. I leave it up to the reader which of these interpretations seem to align best with the known facts.

As I said before: Russia is waging a war of attrition. And no, the sanctions aren´t working. Could Russia fail anyway? Of course: Russia and its military *do* have enormous problems, larger than anyone expected before the outbreak of the war. These include widespread corruption, bad supplies, and yes, the odd mutiny. Russia can´t even control its own territory 100%, as evidenced by the attacks of pro-Ukrainian freebooters, supposedly even a drone attack on the Kremlin itself. But time is still on Russia´s side. If we accept the claim that both sides have suffered equally severe losses in absolute numbers, Russia´s larger population will ultimately win out…unless Poland wants to send its sons to the Donbass slaughter house when Ukrainian males become scarce.

But the biggest problem might be the fissures in the Western alliance. Turkey and its tinpot vilayet Hungary have spent most of the Ukrainian war blocking Swedish NATO membership, despite the United States clearly wanting to expand NATO in the Baltic region. Turkey is NATO´s second largest military power, but doesn´t seem particularly interested confronting Russia. And if Donald Trump becomes US president in 2025, there is a non-zero chance that the US will force Ukraine to sign a rotten peace agreement. Indeed, even Trump´s valiant opponents might do so, as evidenced by recent British complaints that Ukraine is treating NATO as an “Amazon warehouse” for arms and munitions?!

The only peace agreement worth signing would be status quo bellum ante, in which Crimea and the original LDNR territories are allowed to remain in Russian hands, while the rest of the occupied territories are evacuated. And, I suppose, Mondelez can continue selling chocolate in Moscow (and Sweden). At the moment, it looks as if the only way for Ukraine to win the war would be coordinated Western airstrikes on Russian targets. But unless Putin really does get a nervous breakdown, that would risk escalate the situation to a new world war…  

Chernobyl in the making?

Credit: IAEA Image Bank

Unconfirmed but disturbing. 

It seems "unconventional" methods are increasingly being used in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Like the bursting of the Kakhovka dam, probably a Russian sabotage action. Or the guerilla attacks in southern Russia. And - of course - the Wagner mutiny. The two latter perhaps the work of the CIA? Supposedly, there has also been an attempted drone attack on the Kremlin! Although I suppose that one could have been a false flag. 

Since the Ukrainian "spring offensive" isn´t going very well (I didn´t expect it to), we may see more of this in the future, but note that the Russians too are worried and quite capable of taking very active measures indeed... 

Russia reducing personnel at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

Never let a woman do a man´s job

 

Credit: Government of the Russian Federation (sic)

With the risk of sounding like an Apolloist...

Never let a confused Jewish girl do the job of an Aryan male warrior. Or, I suppose, the job of a Scythian Amazon!