Sunday, September 16, 2018

Be careful what you wish for

A review of a T-shirt with the text "Abolish the Electoral Collage" 

I don't remember angry Democrats ever demanding this before, not even in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the presidency. They seem to regard Donald Trump as even worse than George W! In reality, it's a logical fallacy to treat the “total” popular vote as an independent variable somehow opposed to the vote on a state-by-state basis. They are, of course, identical. If the president would be elected by direct popular vote, voting behavior in all states would shift in ways we can't predict today. It's a political fallacy to imagine that a direct election would necessarily favor the Democrats. In fact, the opposite is more likely. A savagely savvy populist like Donald Trump would have an even better chance getting elected in a system with no gate-keepers, while bureaucratic or constitutional “checks and balances” such as super-delegates or electors favor moderates or – if the system degenerates – corrupted machine politicians. But sure, if you like your Berlusconi with apple pie, go ahead and make my day…

No comments:

Post a Comment