The quest for the 100th monkey

"Collapse" is a somewhat curious documentary, essentially being an extended interview with one man, Michael Ruppert.

Ruppert is often accused of being a conspiracy theorist, but since I haven't read his books or followed his now defunct newsletter, I can't really judge that issue. "Collapse" mentions conspiracy theory mostly in passing, and instead concentrates on the peak oil issue and its ramifications. I admit that I liked the film. It reminds me of John Michael Greer, James Howard Kunstler and similar authors. There is a certain tension in the film between Ruppert talking about peak oil, and the interviewer wanting him to talk more about himself (he seems to have had a pretty colourful career!).

Those familiar with the issues will recognize most of the material covered. In fact, it's pretty basic: peak oil, the almost complete dependence of our modern civilization (including agriculture) on oil or gas, the impossibility of replacing the fossil fuels with alternative forms of energy, etc. "Collapse" points out that all forms of alternative energy are ultimately dependent on the oil economy - for instance, you need oil to replace standard cars with electric cars.

Ruppert predicts financial panic as the next crisis turns out to be unsolvable because of the super-debt and the decrease in oil production. Some nations might explode or even collapse, such as Saudi Arabia or Dubai. Mass starvation and depopulation will be another consequence of the crisis. American society will be in for a rough ride, as well.

Ruppert don't believe survivalism in the hills is an option, unless you are already very well prepared for it - which most people are not. Instead, the solution is to create strong, resilient, local communities, presumably in some kind of urban or semi-urban settings. Humans must come to terms with the fact that natural laws cannot be overturned or bended any way we like them to, and that no god will intervene to save us from our own folly. Yet, Ruppert isn't anti-spiritual. In fact, he calls for an individual spiritual transformation: "I'm not the Messiah, I'm not trying to save anyone, except myself".

The most curious part of "Collapse" features Ruppert's musings about Cuba and North Korea, two Communist nations which suffered their own version of peak oil after Russia stopped its oil deliveries. Ruppert claims that Cuba promoted "capitalist" local initiative and freed organic agriculture from state regulations, thereby mitigating the crisis. By contrast, North Korea simply continued with its super-centralized planned economy, and ended up with a massive famine as a result. Despite not being a leftist, Ruppert actually sounds pro-Cuban!

Although Ruppert isn't as apocalyptic as the more extreme doomers (in this, he resembles Greer), he is nevertheless very upset and emotional about the human predicament, and almost starts crying at several points in the interview. I get the feeling that he doesn't really think the human race is going to make it... The gloomy feeling is compounded by the interview being made in a dark room with a prison-like wall, Ruppert being dressed in a monochrome outfit, making it seem that he's been incarcerated!

As I already indicated, "Collapse" is an introduction to the peak oil issue (or issues), not an in-depth analysis with all the possible arguments pro and con laid out before the viewer. If you are new to these issues, you need to complement it. "The Long Descent" by John Michael Greer, "The Long Emergency" by James Howard Kunstler and "Energy Myths and Realities" by Vaclav Smil are three good places to start. Perhaps Ruppert's own books are good too, but unfortunately I haven't read them.

The interview also contains one major howler: a new version of the 100th monkey myth or urban legend. This time, the story is placed on some US-controlled island in the South Pacific (usually it's Japan). But sure, I liked Ruppert's comment about "searching for the 100th monkey".

Will that 100th monkey be able to save the Third Chimpanzee? That, I suppose, is the $ 10,000 question.