The peak oil trilogy, part 2

"The Ecotechnic Future" is a book by John Michael Greer, an independent scholar, organic farmer and Druid (sic) who has become something of a household word within the so-called peak oil community. Greer's book is part of a de facto trilogy, and should be read together with "The Long Descent" and "The Wealth of Nature". Of course, these books do overlap to a great extent. "The Long Descent" is probably the most well-known of the author's peak oil books.

"The Ecotechnic Future" was a joy to read, but is very difficult to review. It covers a *lot* of ground: comparisons between the fate of human civilizations and ecological succession, speculations about the shape of our post-affluent future, practical tips on organic farming and composting, comments on Spengler and Toynbee, criticism of apocalyptic religion and rare glimpses into the author's personal life. His religious faith (Revival Druidry) is mentioned mostly in passing. It seems Greer is at pains to sound as "rational" as possible in his books on our more secular predicaments...

While Greer doesn't believe our civilization is sustainable, he lacks the fiercely apocalyptic perspective of the contemporary doomer scene. In Greer's scenario, the modern world will decline and fall gradually. It won't be pretty, but it won't spell the end of humanity or Nature either. He calls the three stages of the long descent "scarcity industrialism", "salvage economy" and "ecotechnic future". The first phase is marked by the breakdown of neo-liberal globalism and the resurgence of strong, centralized nation-states commandeering the rapidly shrinking resources, but still within a context which is largely industrial. The salvage economy is the next stage: fossil fuels have been depleted, forcing people to scavenge the abandoned cities and high-tech gadgets for useful parts. In this phase, the nation-states will presumably crumble. The ecotechnic future is the last stage. It's more nebulous, and I frankly never understood exactly what it might entail. The entire process of decline will be marked by famines, mass migrations, wars and the loss of much technological knowledge and cultural capital. The United States won't fear well, and might loose most of the West to Mexico or sheer desert, with the mega-cities in the East and Midwest being abandoned in favour of medium-sized and small towns. However, somehow at least part of humanity will muddle through and (hopefully) create some kind of sustainable, local communities in the distant future.

The book doesn't contain any "solutions", and sometimes feel rather deterministic. However, it offers adaptations, all of which are geared towards creating strong local communities or make it possible for the individual to become (relatively) self-reliant. Organic farming, backyard gardens, a gradual shift from heavy industry to agriculture and artisans, more spirituality and (controversially) a stricter division of labour between the sexes are some of the adaptations that might ease the transition. Greer rejects more traditional survivalism, however, since isolated farms in the countryside will be easy targets for roaming bands of marauders - and tempting targets, too, if they really do stash a lot of high-quality food. Small or medium-sized towns surrounded by agricultural land are more viable, and easier to defend by local military units.

A central theme of "The Ecotechnic Future" is the notion that neither evolution nor history has any higher or intrinsic meaning. There are patterns in evolution and history, to be sure, but no "meaning". Evolution simply takes advantage of whatever possibilities exist at any given time, radiating like a bush into all suitable habitats, with no telos in sight. Cultural evolution is a similar process, with no "higher" or "lower", just better or worse adaptations to the ecological conditions at hand. It's somewhat surprising to read this vintage Neo-Darwinism in a book by an author who is spiritual, and who therefore presumably believes that some forms created by evolution *are* higher than others. Are the gods of druidry really on the same level as humans, boars or common hop? Greer spends some time analyzing Spengler's monumental work "The Decline of the West", and expresses support for the cyclical view of history expressed therein. He also supports Spengler's relativism, claiming that meaning isn't a hard fact of the universe but something created by human cultures. Another problematic statement, surely...

As already mentioned, Greer is highly critical of both the modern, Western idea of progress and its seeming opposite, the notion that history is evil and should be transcended in apocalyptic fashion. To Greer, these two ideas are really counterpoints. He points to Joachim of Flora (or Joachim of Fiore) who combined a progressive view of history with a final apocalypse. He also bemoans the fact that virtually all contemporary protest movements somehow assume that *their* pet utopia will be ushered in, if only the system could collapse fast enough. Greer's perspective is more pragmatic, almost to the point of occasionally sounding conservative. Piecemeal reforms, representative democracy with checks and balances, and an aversion to utopias and sudden revolutions are characteristic of his thinking.

Personally, I have an uneasy feeling that Greer might be too optimistic about the descent being gradual, and way too optimistic about human societies and the biosphere being marked by "homeostasis" and hence a kind of fundamental stability. Greer is probably also wrong to suggest that democracy will work better than authoritarian regimes during the long descent. It's easy to imagine the very opposite scenario, in which an authoritarian (or semi-authoritarian) regime is more efficient and "gets things done" faster. Just compare China's response to the finance crisis with that of the United States (the Chinese found it hilarious). Or compare the situation in Russia during Putin with the situation under Yeltsin. Greer himself believes that "scarcity industrialism" will entail *more* state control, not less, over the economy. Besides, many people are willing to support authoritarian regimes - it's a common liberal (and perhaps even neo-con) fallacy to imagine that everyone in the world wants to live under a U.S.-style constitution. Perhaps the average organic farmer in Greer's current home state of Maryland is a natural Jeffersonian (or even Anti-Federalist), but that might very well become the exception to the rule during the long descent...

With that being said, I nevertheless award "The Ecotechnic Future" five stars. While the book perhaps isn't the first Greer book you should read, it's a good complement to his already mentioned main work "The Long Descent".