That was fast

Some very stray thoughts on the fall of Kabul...

Back in 2001, I actually supported the US intervention in Afghanistan. There wasn´t any obvious alternative. Al-Qaeda had attacked on 9/11. The Taliban (not exactly angels) were protecting al-Qaeda. Ergo: bomb the Taliban (and, hopefully, get al-Qaeda). I still *guess* that this was the right line of action, but of course, there is a broader context, which isn´t exactly kind to the United States. As in support for Taliban-loving Pakistan, "stirring up some Muslims" against the Soviet Union (yeah, they sure stirred things up, alright), arming and training the guys later known as al-Qaeda... And how do we know 9/11 wasn´t a provocation? It was certainly used that way. Afghanistan was just a side show to the main thing: the attack on Iraq (which I opposed). But Iraq didn´t cooperate with al-Qaeda, as was obvious even at the time. Al-Qaeda became strong in Iraq *after* the US invasion, and later morphed to the even worse "Islamic State". In Afghanistan, the Northern Alliance may have been "the good guys" (sort of) in 2001, but Biden´s Saigon still feels like a kind of karmic reckoning... 

Further, I note that the Taliban seems a bit smarter this time around than back in the 1990´s. So far at least, they haven´t dragged any former Afghan presidents through the streets in assassinated condition, instead opting for a peaceful transition of power, apparently brokered by Qatar. They have established de facto diplomatic relations with both China and Iran, the latter being a traditional enemy of militant Sunnis and politicking Pakistanis. The reason why most of northern Afghanistan fell so quickly to the Taliban is that this mostly Pashtun movement decided *not* to overthrow the local strongmen, who represent very different ethnic groups. However, the Taliban are still for gender apartheid, including opposition to schooling for girls. If they plan to reinvite al-Qaeda (or invite IS) remains to be seen. 

Perhaps the Taliban will prove to be more pragmatic this time around? If that *really* improves the situation in Afghanistan is, perhaps, another matter entirely.

While I´m no big fan of Russia or China, I suppose it´s the lesser evil if they stabilize the situation in their backyard regions, if the West isn´t strong enough to hold on to them anymore. 

Don´t stir up these guys again, Henry!