All quiet at the Rubicon...for now

“Crippled America” is Donald Trump's latest book. It's essentially an extended campaign speech, in which the real estate mogul argues in favor of his candidacy for the American presidency. The book is uneven, as if written in a hurry. Still, it's probably necessary reading for anyone even remotely interested in politics, since the author really might become the next president!

At least to me, many of Trump's policy proposals sound contradictory. Trump promises lower taxes but also calls for increased public spending on infrastructure and the military. But yes, perhaps this is “revenue neutral” if all corruption and waste would be eliminated in Washington. A harder sell is the proposal to raise the taxes for the rich, while forcing outsourced capital and businesses back to the United States. What if the transnational elites decide to relocate to East Asia or Latin America? His foreign policy also strikes me as unclear. In the book, he is opposed to both Russia and China, but in the real world, Trump has questioned the utility of NATO and been praised by Putin. One thing is obvious, though: Trump is no isolationist. His opposition to the war in Iraq was a tactical one, since he feared Iran more. Indeed, Iran is singled out as the main enemy of the United States. Trump's support for Israel is unflinching, and he clearly wants a massive intervention in Syria against the ISIS terrorists.

Due to his controversial opposition to illegal immigration (most of which comes from Mexico), Trump is often placed in the same “right wing populist tradition” as George Wallace, Barry Goldwater and the John Birch Society. Assuming these people even belong to the same “tradition” (which is questionable), Trump sounds main line by comparison. There is nothing in his book about state rights or opposition to the Federal Reserve and the United Nations. Trump also studiously avoids most “culture war” issues. We never learn his positions on abortion, creationism, Confederate flags or gender-neutral bathrooms. He does take a strong stand in defense of gun ownership, however. And yes, he absolutely doesn't believe in climate change! When discussing religion, Trump reveals the interesting fact that he used to be affiliated with the church of Norman Vincent Peale, the author of “The Power of Positive Thinking”.

What makes “Crippled America” interesting is not so much what Trump says, but the way he says it. He constantly projects a tough guy image, so much in fact that he sounds almost ironic when he suddenly declares “I'm a nice guy. I really am”. Trump's main talking point is that he, as an outsider who built a business empire worth billions, knows how to fix things and make things done. The book contains color photos of Trump-owned skyscrapers in New York and Vegas, and a photo of Trump's family where they look almost like royalty. Clearly, this guy knows how to flash the cash! To a European, this part of the Trump phenomenon is the most baffling: ordinary workers vote for a guy who is obviously part of the establishment. I suppose those of us who chose to stay behind in Old Europe won't ever understand the appeal of the American dream…

Trump is controversial for two reasons. First, his opposition to illegal immigration (which can easily spill over into opposition to legal immigration) rubs both liberals and conservatives the wrong way. It potentially threatens the voting blocs of the former and the business profits of the latter (or even the former!). Immigration, including illegal immigration, is a pillar of really existing American capitalism. So is outsourcing and “free trade”. Trump is remarkably consistent in opposing all three, but it's a logic that threatens the system at a very central point.

Second, Trump has been extremely successful in gathering votes and other forms of support, much to the surprise of pundits everywhere (and perhaps even to himself). A large portion of that support comes from workers fed up with both the Democrats and the “real” Republicans. I think the establishment fears what these people might do, once awakened from their slumber. What will happen if Trump actually decides to stop immigration, outsourcing and tax loopholes for the rich? More importantly, what will Trump's voting base do if their tough leader *doesn't* deliver on his promises? Who will they turn to next? (Hint: It won't be Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio!)

Donald Trump has already been accused of “fascism” or of being “the American Caesar”. I think he is better seen as a latter day rerun of (pre-presidency) Ronald Reagan, and his voters as the new Reagan Democrats. I think Trump sees himself that way, too. The book features a photo of a much younger Trump shaking Reagan's hand during a White House event. Reagan is the only “real” politician pictured in “Crippled America”. Trump could also be compared to Italy's Silvio Berlusconi or even to Vladimir Putin. Caesar won't cross the Rubicon until Trump fails…

With that ominous warning, I end my review of “Crippled America”.

Originally posted on April 15, 2016.