World wars

Credit: Mil.gov.ua

I already linked to this once, but here we go again…

Note on Stormtrooper Syndrome

If I understand JMG right, his argument is that Russia originally tried to defeat Ukraine using “Second World War methods” (blitzkrieg). But unfortunately for the Rooskees, the Ukrainians had developed methods to counter World War II methods.

So the Russians switched to *First* World War methods instead…

A lot of manpower (cannon fodder), ground artillery, ammunition, barbed wire fences, mine fields and trenches. The Ukrainian counter-methods to WW2 methods didn´t work on WW1 methods, forcing Ukraine to switch to WW1 methods themselves. The problem is that Russia has the advantage on the WW1 front. For instance, NATO´s ammunition was quickly depleted. And no NATO power is willing to send conscripts (or even mercenaries – at least not en masse) to aid the Ukrainian side. I´m not sure what the “Spring Offensive” is supposed to be in this scenario. Some kind of weird Amerikan fantasy world war?

So how could Ukraine win this war? JMG doesn´t say (he is an isolationist and hence doesn't care), but three scenarios seem possible. Or “possible”. First, Ukraine could continue with the WW1 tactics, backed up by a West more willing to make sacrifices. This could work, but probably only if the Putin regime in Russia falls first due to some kind of internal instability. Second, Ukraine (or rather NATO) could resort to something we could call “World War Three” methods. NATO could simply bomb the damn Russians into submission, destroy the Kerch bridge, and so on. The problem with this scenario should be Über-obvious. Unless, I suppose, the Putin regime falls.

Third, Russia could be permitted to win the war…but then the Ukrainian side resorts to the same tactics as the Iraqi Islamists during the US occupation of Iraq. Some call it 4GW: a generalized resistance movement which is everywhere and nowhere, making Ukraine ungovernable, eventually forcing the Russians to leave. The problem with this strategy is twofold. Ukraine will be in very bad shape even if victorious (although I suppose really generous Western support could remedy this). Also, fourth generation warfare can be countered by a sufficiently hardboiled enemy willing to resort to near-genocidal methods. And yes, the Russians are such an enemy. See Chechnya! So this probably won´t work either, unless (again) the Putin regime falls.

The bottom line seems to be that Ukraine (and NATO) can´t win unless *Russia* is destabilized. Not impossible, but improbable at present and also fraught with grave dangers.

So don´t be too surprised if Biden first waves the bloody shirt during the 2024 POTUS elections in order to defeat “the Russian asset” Trump, and then, when elected, forces Kyiv to sign a rotten peace agreement anyway. At which all Western liberals will rejoice and finally “discover” that Azov really are trans-phobic Nazis!

I can´t say I like these perspectives.