Putin´s only victory

It´s hardly a secret that I support Ukraine against Russia, but am I getting sick and tired of the surrealist propaganda from the Western side. Which sometimes makes people on "my" side go ballistic, but that can´t be helped.

When Mariupol fell, the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet ("independent" Social Democrat) called it "Putin´s only victory". The media in general dubbed the surrender of the Azov Battalion an "evacuation". A strange evacuation, this, to captivity on Russian-controlled territory! And how come there even *is* Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine, if Mariupol´s fall was "Putin´s only victory"?

Now, it´s happening again. The impending fall of Severodonetsk will be a "symbolic victory" for Putin, since he can "proclaim himself victor in all of the Luhansk region". Translation: when Severodonetsk falls, Putin will actually have conquered the Luhansk region. 

Russia controls vast territories in eastern and southern Ukraine, they have connected the former territory of the LDNR with Crimea, and turned the Azov Sea into a Russian lake. They also control the Black Sea, and can stop Ukrainian shipping to and from the ports still under Ukrainian control. And no, the sanctions aren´t working. So far, they have probably hurt the West more than Russia. Or perhaps hurt both sides equally. Even Western media outlets admit, in the fine print, that the ruble has never been stronger, that the EU still buys Russian oil, that India has pretty much betrayed its allies in the Quad, and so on. 

"But Russia failed to take Kiev". So? Yes, they failed to take Kiev. And you evidently failed to get the point. Russia currently controls half of the Donbass, the region of Ukraine where most natural resources can be found. They have turned the rest of Ukraine into an economic basket case, and forced millions to become refugees. If this is how "losing" looks like, Russia doesn´t need too many of those "symbolic" victories!

Every day, bizarre rumors are published in the Western newspapers, about how Putin is dying, or is already dead, and perhaps replaced by a body double! In reality, Putler is probably just fine, laughing at us. He can continue his war of attrition for months to come. Next target: Donetsk. Or maybe years. Who knows, maybe one day in 2024, he will "symbolically" capture Kiev? But perhaps by that time, the Western pundits can blame Donald Trump´s transitional team for the, ahem, tactical retreat...

The only thing that can force Russia out of Ukraine (presumably minus Crimea and the old LDNR) are huge arms shipments to the Ukrainian military, and more covert Western operations. And even then, victory isn´t entirely assured. From a Russian viewpoint, this really is "an existential struggle". (The same is true from the Ukrainian viewpoint, of course.) But what is it from the viewpoint of the Biden Administration? Or the EU? Maybe it´s just another *unfortunate* geopolitical conflict, solvable by some bizniz-as-usual, McDonald´s in Moscow, or whatever. And how do ordinary Europeans and Americans see it? "Are you willing to risk a recession in *your* country just to defend Severodonetsk", some God-forsaken town in eastern Ukraine you never heard about before, and the name of which you can´t even pronounce properly? 

In reality, the Russians are not just fighting some incomprehensible borderland war with a similar Slavic people over the control of some shitty township somewhere (symbolically or otherwise). We already know what the Russians actually want: to Finlandize all of Europe and (de facto) dissolve NATO. They said so more or less explicitly last year in a "draft proposal" for a negotiated settlement with the United States. And for all we know, Russia might be the proxy of China! Not just allies, but actual proxies. In other words: Russia is fighting to recreate Czar Alexander´s Empire...on behalf of the Chinese Communist Party.

That´s what we´re up against. And that´s why the propaganda about constant Russian defeats is so annoying. What will European voters do when they realize that Russia isn´t really losing? Panic and demand that Norad nukes Kaliningrad? Or draw the conclusion that since Ukraine can´t win anyway, it´s better telling them to ask Putin for peace? The latter seems the more likely option. Europeans might not understand that they, too, are fighting an existential battle, but they do notice the rising energy and food prices... 

If the war had *only* been about Severodonetsk, well, yeah, then we could have negotiated to our heart´s content. But it isn´t. It´s about...us. If the West still has a Clemenceau or Churchill, let him now step forward!