Overheard on Twitter: "It´s not a blockade of Kaliningrad, it´s a special transportation operation". I admit that was funny. The Lithuanian blockade itself, on the other hand, isn´t. It could be the single most important escalation from the Western side so far. So how come almost nobody in the media covers it?
Putin might be bluffing about nuclear weapons, but is it really unthinkable that he could launch a conventional attack on Lithuania (a NATO member) if an internationally recognized Russian territory (not some obscure breakaway republic) is felt to be under threat? Note that the Kaliningrad exclave is surrounded at all sides (except the ocean side) by NATO member-states, and that it houses Russian submarines with nuclear missiles that can reach Stockholm in 40 minutes.
I mean, what could possibly go wrong if an American ally threatens it?
I hope NATO knows what they are doing. If not, well, it´s a dangerous world...
Of course, another possibility is simply that they provide goods to Kaliningrad through the Baltic Sea, and that nothing happens. Putin might not want to escalate, preferring to keep it cool, since he is winning in eastern Ukraine anyway...
ReplyDeleteThe Kaliningrad nothing-burger?
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