Better off without them

 

Credit: Oleg Bor

Some stray thoughts on our Turkish predicament...

I long wondered why on earth the United States tolerates Turkey´s and Hungary´s rather obvious attempts to bloc Swedish NATO membership. Which only plays into the hands of Russia, with which NATO is presently involved in a proxy war in Ukraine.

My best current guess is bureaucratic inertia. NATO coyly calculates that no NATO member-state will ever be attacked, cuz nuclear deterrent or something. And the United States can fix their own specific problems by going it alone. Proxy wars, targeted assassinations, that kind of stuff. So the apparatchiks might very well wheel and deal with the likes of Erdogan, cuz who cares? Fill in complaint about lucrative military-industrial complex contracts here! As for Hungary, well, read up on how the EU "works" sometimes (or, really, don´t). 

All these applecarts were upset when Russia launched its full-scale unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Suddenly, Sweden and Finland wanted to join NATO. And the United States wanted them in. There is just one little problem. Yes, you´ve guessed it: Turkey (and their quasi-conquered little Hungarian vilayet). The old wheeling and dealing approach doesn´t work anymore. Instead, Erdogan´s notorious multi-vectoralism has pushed NATO further and further towards a split. The recent events in the Transcaucasus and now the Hamas pogroms in southern Israel may be the Rubicon. Turkey clearly doesn´t want to line up behind the United States and Israel (a "partner" to NATO). Suggesting they won´t clear Sweden for NATO membership this time around either. 

Perhaps it´s time for the other NATO member-states to finally realize that geopolitical realities have changed. Yes, maybe it´s time to de-ratify Türkiye´s NATO membership? Make no mistake: it would be a huge blow to the alliance and its "southern flank". But the damage has already been done. In the long run, and maybe even in the short, NATO is better off without being blocked by a Putinversteher heading a quasi-Islamist autocracy with geopolitical goals clearly incompatible with those of the Western world. 

What is the alternative? Regime change, perhaps. But that´s hardly on the table. Wheeling and dealing with the mercurial Erdogan if and when Putin decides to test NATO´s resolve by taking the Suwalki corridor or bomb some island off the Swedish coast?

It´s time for Erdogan to chose. Once and for all. Otherwise, we´re better off without a "southern flank" that for all intents and purposes may already have fallen...