Sunday, December 5, 2021

There will be civil war


Something has changed. The atmosphere has become really, really ugly as of late. Maybe it always was. I mean, the BLM riots were in 2020. The COVID pandemic started even earlier. And the storming of the Capitol was on 6 January (this year). And yet...and yet, it feels that something has changed. I think I spotted this when Kyle Rittenhouse was acquitted of all charges. The reactions of the "liberals" and the left have been truly bizarre. They essentially want to *murder* Trump supporters. The muted media reactions to the terrorist attack in Waukesha, coupled with the somewhat less muted reactions of certain Karenista liberals, point in the same direction. That, and several other developments lately. This is how civil wars start. 

And if that wasn´t enough, there are more and more demands for compulsory vaccination, in both Europe and the United States, which probably wouldn´t even stop the pandemic, while it certainly would infringe on basic democratic rights and constitutional liberties. But above all, it would erode the trust between government and people - such a mandate is probably impossible to enforce anyway, but the fact that the guys upstairs *even tried* might be enough to make the "social contract" evaporate. Note also that the US administration looks weak, and will look even weaker when Biden dies in office, Harris takes over and (if the GOP is succesful in the midterm elections) is forced to govern with a GOP-approved VP chaperon. 

This doesn´t mean that a right-wing insurgency will succeed. I don´t believe the silly "yeah man, we´re armed, man, the left isn´t" meme. Antifa were certainly armed, and the left doesn´t have to be armed, as long as the US military stays loyal to the system. However, I wouldn´t be surprised if a right-wing insurgency in the US *actually happens* during the 2020´s. Perhaps it will be suppressed, in truly bloody fashion, by the US military. What happens then, nobody knows. The formation of a right-wing "IRA" of sorts? It might even be in the interest of a Dem admin to *provoke* such an insurgency, to discredit the GOP and stop Trump from winning the 2024 elections. Otherwise, I can think of a number of possible triggers, from an unexpected Dem win in the 2022 midterms, to a Rittenhouse-like character being executed by the federal government, to mandatory vaccinations combined with adverse effects of said vaccine on a massive scale, or just rumors that this can or has happened. 

The international situation also looks truly menacing. The United States is no longer a superpower, and absolutely not the world´s only superpower, yet is still trying to bluff the Russians and the Chinese with tough talk. Does anyone believe that Biden or Harris would *actually* defend the Ukraine against Russia? Can they even defend Taiwan (probably more important to the US than eastern Ukraine)? What if Putin and Xi calls Biden´s bluff?

Had I been a science fiction writer, I would pen a story about how Kamala overreaches herself in desperation, how this triggers a QAnon-cultic rebellion, and how China uses the ensuing chaos to take Taiwan. On second thoughts, I wouldn´t, since people wouldn´t understand that I´m writing fiction! But sure, perhaps a last chapter involving a nuclear first strike on the US mainland from a North Korean sub sneaking into the San Fransisco Bay might do the trick? I mean, that still sounds too fantastic to ever happen.

Right?  


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