We don´t even have five years left

Robert Mathiesen is a retired US scholar of Russian-related topics who frequently comments on John Michael Greer´s blogs. Here is his latest comment (# 134) at the December 2021 Open Post. He is even more pessimistic than I am... 

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On the subject of Putin and the current absolutely terrifying situation with Ukraine:

Every long-established state has an egregore of its own, or (to use less esoteric terminology) a national mythology that defines and justifies all its geopolitical actions. For many centuries the national mythology of the Russia insists that its history began in the territory around the city of Kiev, which at present is located in Ukraine, not in Russia. As a consequence, only a small minority of Russians are willing to concede even the smallest measure of historical legitimacy to any sort of Ukrainian state and Ukrainian nation (narod), but reflexively “know in their heart of hearts” that sooner or later Ukraine will and must be reabsorbed into Russia, and Ukrainians must be made to become Russians, no matter what the military cost might be. Even a nuclear war would be justified, in Russian eyes, if there were no lesser way to reach that goal. (In another part of the world the attitude of China toward Taiwan is somewhat similar.)

Consequently, there is not really any safe way whatever for the USA and/or Nato to play geopolitical games with Russia over Ukrainian independence, as they seem to be doing now. This is the closest the world has ever openly come to a nuclear holocaust within the eight decades of my own life.

I think the odds are better than 60 to 40 that all our recent discussions about preparing for collapse will be rendered moot within the next three years, and that the population of North America and Western Eurasia will be reduced by more than half within those same years.

I do not scare easily, due to having an atypical neurology, but even I am running scared about this. I do so hope events may prove me wrong!!!

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My response (not yet put through):

Robert #134

I´m very worried too (live in Sweden). Russia has also issued a declaration about "security guarantees" which in effect demands that NATO dissolves itself. Obviously, NATO will do no such thing.

The most moderate interpretation I can think of is that Putin issues impossible demands so that his *real* demand (get at least half of Ukraine?) will then be considered "reasonable".  

The official viewpoint in Sweden seems to be that Russia won´t attack Ukraine (sic). Some people in the media take a grimmer view: Russia knows that NATO won´t intervene to save Ukraine if the Russians actually invade...

Both scenarios have one thing in common: there won´t be a third world war. Well, let´s hope they are right!