The madness of MAGA and the end of the American Century

 

Adventurist dream? A geopolitical allegory.

Let´s be brutally honest. That fat Hungarian dictator Orbán does have a point when he recently criticized the EU for isolating themselves from both the United States, Russia and China. How likely is it that the EU could make it alone? *Highly* unlikely, at least at the present time.

This is a curious paradox that struck me already when Trump started alienating the US allies in Europe and North America (Canada). Remember that Trump´s goal is to challenge China for the role of global hegemon. But the most logical option for an alienated and "anti-American" Europe and Canada is to normalize its ties with China. At least the economic ties. Indeed, France has occasionally implied a willingness to do this. At the very least, Europe and Canada could strike a "neutral" pose á la India. 

The Trump-Vance-Bannon idea to confront China while appeasing Russia is a high stake gamble in any case, since Russia (as I never tire of pointing out) is a Chinese ally and may even be a kind of Chinese proxy. But what if the end result of the gamble isn´t just a failure to break up the Eurasian alliance, but comes at the cost of losing Europe (even including Britain) and Canada as allies in the upcoming anti-Chinese confrontation? Yes, the EU and Britain may not like the idea of a modus vivendi with China, since Beijing is de facto backing Moscow in the Ukrainian war, but the Chinese leadership is probably sufficiently pragmatic to reshuffle some of its cards to make this possible. Especially if the war ends in a Russian victory anyway. 

I used to think that the Neo-Cons around George W Bush had a crazy and adventurist foreign policy, while Trump (mark one) was more pragmatic (yes, really). However, Trump´s current foreign policy is even more adventurist. Apparently, the PRC media often jokes about Trump being a Chinese agent in the White House, tasked with creating as much havoc as possible to weaken the United States! 

Oh, and then there´s the strange line in the Middle East, where the Don both tries to extend the Abraham accords and threatens the Gazans with expulsion. Many American allies in the region have already expressed an interest in joining BRICS...

Of course, there is stlll a remote possibility that Trump is simply bluffing. He has apparently paused the tariffs against Mexico and Canada again. During his first presidency, he and Kim Jong-un threatened to nuke each other´s countries for about a month before negotiating. Maybe this is just a long con to force the other NATO members to pay their fair share and commit to ground troops in Ukraine (so the US can use them in the Pacific theatre instead or at the Mexican border). Maybe. However, I have to say that Trump´s adventurist LARP as an Manchurian candidate has become a bit too convincing lately!