Twilight

 

The enigmatic and seemingly chaotic actions of the Trump administration could be just that: enigmatic and chaotic. But if taken at face value, there does seem to be a certain "method in madness". The American imperial nationalism (Nixon?) might be morphing into American isolationism. The United States are preparing to severe the trans-atlantic link to Europe, and there may even be questions concerning their willingness to confront China. 

The seemingly absurd territorial demands on Greenland and Canada (!) makes sense geopolitically if the goal is to isolate the United States from the rest of the world. A single North American union is presumably easier to militarily defend. Obviously, other great powers can´t be permitted to have leverage in the New World through Canada or Greenland. Compare the Monroe doctrine. The threats to take over the Panama Canal and re-assert US authority in its Latino near abroad (or "backyard") fit the same pattern. 

Note also the trade wars against *US allies*. Which brings me to the East Asian theatre. High tariffs were recently imposed on Japan. I think Trump said already during his first tenure that Japan should pay more for its military defenses. He has also threatened tariffs on Taiwan! Note also that Trump´s buddy and de facto close advisor Elon Musk still has considerable economic interests in mainland China. None of this makes much sense if the goal is to confront the PRC and perhaps even wage a new world war with them. It makes more sense if the eventual goal is to reach a modus vivendi with China. The world would then be divided into two main power blocs: a Sino-Russian alliance controlling most of Eurasia and the United States, directly or indirectly in control of the New World. 

The biggest loser in this new geopolitical landscape is (of course) the European Union with associates. To a large extent, this is self-inflicted. Take Germany, where the insane political elite could carry out their experiment with "green transition" in the safe knowledge that Russian fossil fuels would bail them out. And - in the event of an all-out war with Russia - the US military and/or nuclear umbrella would take care of the problem. As far as I understand, Poland has a stronger military at present than Germany. The idea that a bureaucratic behemoth like the EU could do anything really effective to counter Russian threats (or a unilateral US take-over of Greenland) is ridiculous, to say the least. The EU can´t even get rid of Viktor Orbán! Add to this a rapidly declining birth rate, mass immigration, the growth of pro-Russian political parties, attacks on domestic agriculture, and the effects of climate change. Europe might become a Russian backwater...or collapse altogether. The only European nation with enough political and military clout to "save the day" seems to be France, and even that only barely. 

Of course, the Trump administration might simply be a fluke. Trump doesn´t have an obvious successor as "god-emperor" of MAGA. Many Republicans are probably still "RINOs" (Neocons or even liberals) and are just faking support for the old don, hoping for better days in 2028-29. I think it´s obvious that Lindsey Graham and Mike Johnson really want to continue supporting Ukraine, and wanted Zelensky to schmooze for Trump and sign the mineral deal as a way to "tie down" the United States in Ukraine. Hence their dismay when Zelensky decided to push back in public at that White House event. There is also one glaring anomaly in the crypto-isolationist foreign policies: Trump´s strong support for Israel, specifically Netanyahu and at least rhetorically even his far right coalition partners. Here, the entire Republican party is presumably still united...behind a Neocon agenda!

So it´s certainly possibly that everything will go back to normal in 2028-29. Except of course that it won´t. Trump probably isn´t a strange mutant distraction in the American body-politic. He is the warning that something fundamental is about to change, indeed, probably already has. He demonstrates that "America First" is a viable political option, something that hasn´t been the case since at least 1941. This in itself will create tensions and insecurities between the United States and its supposed allies in both Europe and Asia. The "pseudomorphosis" which made America more European may have come unglued, with the United States reverting to its true barbarian self. The next MAGA-like movement will probably be even more "populist", even more authoritarian, and decidedly less Zionist. 

"Woke" liberalism is really also an American barbarity, but since it wants to Wokify the world (or the West), this particular mind-virus doesn´t mind the trans-atlantic or trans-pacific links, rather using them as vectors. America First nationalism, by definition, only cares about the territory its forebears managed to snatch from the Natives. 

And since we *do* live in a world of chaos and downright enigmatic insanity, everything I just said above might be overrun by events by the time I actually post this...