Vlad the Mad

Is Vladimir Putin really crazy, irrational and erratic? My take (which, of course, could be wrong) is that Putin´s transmogrification into Vlad the Mad is just Western MSM incomprehension, or even propaganda. Perhaps "Vlad" is acting in a perfectly rational way, given the actual facts on the ground? Rational, that is, from the perspective of Russian great power politics!

First, the United States has explicitly said that it won´t directly fight the Russians if and when they invade Ukraine. Second, everyone seems to agree that the Ukrainian military is no match for the Russian ditto. So is it *really* that crazy to invade Ukraine? It´s difficult to see how some Swedish arms delivery at the very last minute (how are they going to get the weapons to Kyiv anyway?) could possibly change the course of the war. 

But what about the sanctions? First, the sanctions imposed in 2014 are obviously sham. *What* sanctions? The sanctions imposed now may be worse, but note that Russian oil and gas haven´t been sanctioned, nor have all Russian banks been banned from the global markets and payment systems. More importantly, even if the sanctions "bite", if Russia defeats Ukraine within weeks or at most months, the West will be faced with a fait accompli. I think Putin coldly calculates that in such a situation, Germany and France will no longer want to continue the sanctions. Indeed, the globalist leeches will try to worm themselves back to Moscow or Kyiv ASAP. Wouldn´t be surprised to see Hunter Biden snort cocaine together with Yanukovich at some plush resort town at the Black Sea coast...

Maybe Putin is wrong about the sanctions this time. The point, however, is that it doesn´t seem particularly irrational to assume that the West will act as they have always acted hitherto. A lot of hot air about Ukraine´s territorial integrity...and a lot of Russian bizniz! 

Note also that Alexei Navalny is in prison, that Germany and France openly quarelled with the United States before the war, that Joe Biden is more senile than Boris Yeltsin was drunk, that Angela Merkel is gone, that the US failed to contain the Taliban in Afghanistan, that China is a Russian ally...

But what about his "irrational views" in that notorious speech? Actually, Putin always had that position. "Ukraine isn´t a real country", "Ukraine should be partitioned between Russia and Poland". None of that is new. It´s standard Greater Russian nationalist fare. Nor is Putin completely in error: most current ex-Soviet borders were originally "Communist", those of Ukraine not exempted. While that may not be a valid diplomatic point at an OSCE conference, it´s probably a widespread opinion among Russians in the ex-Soviet Union that many of them are on "the wrong side of the border"... 

As far as I can tell, there are only two things that can stop Putin. One is if the Ukrainian resistance proves to be tougher than expected, and the Ukrainians don´t split the way Putin expects them to. *If* the West decides to impose (or continue with) hard sanctions in such a situation, Russia could get in serious trouble. The other is if China abandons Russia for whatever reason. Perhaps the Biden Administration will offer to stop confronting China (and offer to stop Trump in 2024) if Beijing turns coat? 

In such a situation, the most rational line of action from a Western viewpoint is to offer a return to status quo bellum ante. If Putin leaves Ukraine (except Crimea and the separatist-controlled areas), the sanctions will be lifted, and everything will get back to normal. Or "normal". No "war crimes tribunals", demands for reparations, etc. And yes, Ukraine will remain technically neutral (although still with a pro-Western government). 

If Putin really thinks the West is going after him personally, *then* we might get a really, really nasty situation. It will get even nastier if the Russian elite, military or people assume that the West (or a newly minted Sino-Western alliance) wants to dismember Russia proper. In such a situation, Putin might very well decide to "push the button" and nuke a couple of foreign capitals. 

But we are not there yet. Well, I think!