The link below is to an article summarizing the possible effects on the world economy of the war in the Ukraine, the sanctions against Russia, and so on. The author emphasizes that his conclusions are tentative.
Apparently, protectionism isn´t something that began recently, with the COVID pandemic, or even the US challenge of Chinese near-hegemony. There has been a creeping protectionism ever since the finance crisis of 2008. This long-term trend was exacerbated by the COVID pandemic and will probably become even stronger during a "Cold War II" between the West and Russia.
In a sense, this is ironic, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine might also unite the Western powers more than before. But even if this happens, it will be a regional bloc, standing against another bloc dominated by China and Russia. Genuine globalization is therefore over. American attempts to weaponize the dollar might destroy it as the world´s foremost reserve currency. Why trade or take out loans in dollars, if the US government can simply freeze your assets on a whim?
The author believes that the attempts by the United States to decouple its economy from that of China will lead Beijing to succesfully replace industries dependent on Western investment or trade with nationalist ditto. Indeed, China might become the net winner in any neo-Cold War between the West and Russia, as the Russians will be increasingly dependent on selling their oil and gas to China, which can then de facto control these resources. The author also believes that the Chinese can launch a new crypto-currency to promote their nationalist-regionalist interests.
The world will be split between two or more competing blocs, which will lead to a dangerous "geopolitical interregnum", in which the world is neither fully at war or fully at peace. Confrontation and conflict will become the norm. Either way, the American-dominated world order is at an end. I assume this is a more dangerous situation than the first Cold War, when the economic dominance of the United States over the Soviet Union or Communist China was obvious. Even evil Ivan wanted "the sick dollar"!
The article doesn´t mention the climate crisis, the migrant crisis, or any future "peak resource" crisis, but it´s easy to imagine the strains this will place on the Western bloc in particular, but in the case of climate change, the Russo-Chinese axis, too.
"Our" victory in the interregunum isn´t assured.
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