Friday, August 21, 2020

It's different this time!



2020 is clearly a turning point of some kind, so writing this *might* be a bit risky, but I'm going to risk it anyway.

Why should I believe that the world is coming to a speedy end? Why should I believe in the apocalypse? You have been predicting apocalypse literally *all my life*. Nothing happened. Why should I believe it's different this time?

During the 17th century, scientists said that rainfall in the tropics will stop if the forests are cut down. During the 19th century, Justus Liebig worried about the top soil. In 1969, Paul Ehrlich (whom I actually kind of like) predicted mass starvation in the Western nations by 1980. Yet, here we are.

During the 1970's and 1980's, nuclear war followed by nuclear winter would kill us all, unless ozone depletion did it first. Some leftists believed that the 1990's would see a near-apocalyptic reckoning with the old world order. Next was the disappearence of the honeybee. Then, peak oil was going to kill us. In fact, it was supposed to kill us long ago. So how come we are all still here?

But what about the economic depression caused by covid? Well, what about it? The world survived the 1930's Great Depression. It survived the Spanish flue, which was far deadlier than corona. Hell, it even survived two world wars! But what about the threat of mass starvation in the Third World, caused by the corona pandemic? But there have always been poverty and famine in the Third World...

But surely climate change is different? But is it? Shouldn't the Arctic ice sheet have melted by now? Humanity survived both the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. What if climate change turns out to be a much more gradual process than many imagine? What if we are still here in 2028?

I'm not a cornucopian. Real, fundamental progress seems to have stalled during the 1970's. At least in the West (and the Soviet bloc). I wouldn't be surprised if the next century will see a gradual unravelling of the entire modern economic-political system. A bit like the gradual decline of the Roman Empire. But know what? Humanity survived that one, too. Even the Roman Empire survived the so-called fall of Rome...

So what is the point of all this apocalypse-mongering? That sounds like a good topic for another blog post...

"Why are the streets and squares emptying so rapidly, everyone going home lost in thought?

Because night has fallen and the barbarians haven't come
And some of our men just in from the border say
There are no barbarians any longer.

Now what's going to happen to us without the barbarians?
Those people were a kind of solution."





9 comments:

  1. "But surely climate change is different? But is it? Shouldn't the Arctic ice sheet have melted by now? Humanity survived both the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. What if climate change turns out to be a much more gradual process than many imagine? What if we are still here in 2028?"

    Det finns mig veterligt inga klimatforskare som sagt att mänskligheten kommer att förintas 2028, eller tidigare. Eller att den arktiska isen ska ha smält 2020. Det är ju snarare så att processen ser ut att gå snabbare än prognoserna.

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  2. James Hansen, en av de främsta klimatforskarna, förutspådde att den arktiska isen skulle vara borta sommartid någon gång på 2010-talet. Denna tanke populariserades av Al Gore.

    2028 syftar på årtalet då det inte längre kommer att finnas någon återvändo, ett årtal som populariserats av Greta Thunberg.
    Apokalypsen inträffar om vi inte vidtar drastiska åtgärder innan dess.

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  3. Apropå isen så har jag sett både 2035 och 2050 som förslag på när den kommer (eller kan) vara borta sommartid.

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  4. Mina resonemang är påverkade av John Michael Greers artikel "Heating up the political climate" på Ecosophia.

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  5. "2028 syftar på årtalet då det inte längre kommer att finnas någon återvändo, ett årtal som populariserats av Greta Thunberg."

    Men det är ju inget som kommer att synas då. Man kan tänka sig att det lever människor hundra år efter en sådan punkt. När punkten är nådd är mänsklighetens saga all, med det behöver ju ingen veta förrän långt senare.

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  6. Jag tror att poängen med resonemanget är att det faktiskt kommer att synas, såtillvida att man kan förutsäga hur "the feedback loops" påverkar mänskligheten.

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  7. Det kommer att synas för forskare, som kan mäta ko0ldioxidhalter, metangas, smälta glaciärer etc. och räkna ut att den globala uppvärmningen har nått en självgenererande fas, som vi inte - i alla fall inte med några nu kända metoder - kan stoppa.

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  8. Just det. Och detta sägs alltså kunna inträffa 2028...

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  9. Man kan ju hoppas att det inte stämmer. För jag tror inte en sekund att staterna i världen så radikalt kommer att minska CO2-utsläppen på åtta år.

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