Peace in our time

 

So according to rumors, cited by Bloomberg, a secret Russian delegation recently visited the US with a "peace proposal" concerning Russia´s war against Ukraine. The deal would be to let Russia keep all the occupied territories. In return, the rest of Ukraine would be allowed to join NATO and (I presume) the EU. 

In other words: Western surrender. 

First, Putin has long advocated the partitioning of Ukraine, once even telling Poland that they can have the Western part. This was when Eastern Ukraine (including the ethnic Ukrainians there) still voted for pro-Russian parties. Western Ukraine, by contrast, has always been more nationalist. So Putin wouldn´t lose *that* much by effectively ceding most of Ukraine to the West.

Second, Putin has Trojan horses in NATO and the EU. Yes, in NATO, that would be Turkey and Hungary. And perhaps Slovakia. In the EU, that would be Hungary. And perhaps Slovakia. They could block Ukraine´s membership in NATO-EU even in the event of a "peace agreement".

Third, the occupied territories have the largest natural resources and access to the Black Sea. They could perhaps be integrated into the Russian economy (which is largely unhurt by the "sanctions"). The rest of Ukraine is an economic basket case and probably can´t be integrated just as easily into the EU. And while it´s possible that both parties have lost an equal number of men in the brutal war, Ukraine has a smaller population and may have lost its best fighters, while Russia has mostly lost dispensable cannon-fodder. 

Fourth, and following from the above, there won´t be any lasting "peace", just a temporary cessation of hostilities, until the Evil Empire decides it´s about time to resume the Drang nach Abendlandes...

"Peace in our time."