Monday, March 16, 2026

Vårtecken

 

Förmodligen inte Skansen

Björnarna (eller "nallarna" som de kallas på text-TV) på Skansen i Stockholm har tydligen vaknat. Ja, de brukar väl göra det efter vintern varje år? Eller? LOL. 

Ett meddelande till alla kulturknuttar

 


Jag antar att ni fattar att ingen, säger ingen, bryr sig om Habermas, va?

The Zen of Disclosure

 


Damien Echols on UFO disclosure and the Epstein files. Well, I don´t think I agree...

Car crash

 


Michael Tracey (the leading and perhaps only "Epstein skeptic" in the world) actually posted this himself on his YouTube channel and even self-ironically titled it "CAR CRASH interview". Which seems to be about right...

White as they come

 


Once, I asked a White supremacist (?) on YouTube if Albanians are White. He denied it.

The picture above shows the Albanian national hero, the Catholic crusader Skanderbeg. Looks White to me... 

Monday

 


It´s Monday, so here is a picture of Shiva again. 

Sunday, March 15, 2026

Wtf, I love Flint Dibble now

 


Who the heck is Professor Jiang? Everybody is talking about him right now. Jiang seems to be a Chinese conspiracy theorist. Probably some kind of Alt Right stuff. Apparently, he predicted Trump´s attack on Iran with the help of "game theory". Or was it Hari Seldon´s psycho-history? He actually mentions psycho-history (a concept from Asimov´s science fiction novels) in his YouTube channel presentation. Jiang has also predicted that the United States will eventually lose the war in question. 

Debunker Flint Dibble has found some weird videos featuring Jiang´s rather colorful adjacent opinions. For instance that the famous Carthaginian commander Hannibal Barca wasn´t a real person, that Freemasons and Rosicrucians rule the world, that there is no evidence for the Holocaust, or that Jiang himself can somehow communicate with the Divine. He also seems to be doing cold reading on his students?! Elsewhere on-line, I found a video in which the Chinese gadfly seems to be denying the Moon landing. 

Flint claims that Jiang isn´t a real professor, but a middle school teacher in Beijing (note, however, that his YT channel is registered in Canada) with an old bachelor´s degree in English literature from Yale. Jiang has millions of subscribers on YouTube, so it´s possible that he isn´t going away any time soon...   

Rococo Basilisk

 


Roko´s basilisk is a silly thought experiment which apparently mind-fucked members of the "Rationalist" on-line community. I don´t know who they are and little motivation finding out. Some kind of autistic tech nerds spinning the usual blend of libertarianism, transhumanism, NRx and other quite irrational bunk? 

Roko´s basilisk is obviously inspired by an idea found in certain forms of Christianity. If you never heard the Gospel, you will be saved since not hearing the message wasn´t your fault. However, if you *have* heard the Gospel and reject it, you will go to Hell. In other words, hearing the Gospel might actually *endager* your soul - a rather absurd and paradoxical situation (which logically should make Christians stop all their missionary activity). Roko´s basilisk is *exactly* the same idea but with God replaced by an intelligent machine. Another confirmation that certain atheists are simply constructing a simulacrum of Christianity or theism-in-general. The bizarre ideas about retro-causation are presumably inspired by God´s omnipotence and the fact that He stands outside of Time itself, which perhaps leads to various paradoxes.  

And then there are the Zizians...

The Zizians are supposedly an off-shoot of the Rationalist subculture, although it´s difficult to see any obvious connection. They are allegedly a cult preying on vulnerable trans-people, and may be responsible for at least four murders. Apparently, the Zizians claim they can save people from Roko´s basilisk?! 

Oookay...

I admit that I completely missed this particular cult/cultic milieu. But yes, I´ve heard of Roko´s basilisk before. Of course, I´m not terribly impressed by these Silicon Valley-adjacent counter-cultures. Still, it´s interesting that some of the biggest pro-AI crazies may be busy actually developing, well, AI. Which makes the entire basilisk scenario a kind of strange self-fulfilling prophecy. Until the real God (or just lack of good ol´ electricity) puts an end to this silliness once and for all! 

I have spoken.  

I fucking hate science

 


Apparently, some quantum physicists have proven that objective reality is, well, objectively real. I mean, dude, what a mind job!

It´s shit like this that makes me...I don´t know...hit somebody. Maybe all of QM is bunk? Time for an "objectivist" turn in science, maybe? *Of course* reality is real. Next Q-uestion!  

When space opera makes sense

 




Some clips from the Tolkienesque space opera "Babylon 5". The Narn ambassador G´Kar almost makes sense here...

Fun factoid: it actually took me a very long time to realize that "Babylon 5" was heavily indebted to Tolkien, probably because I never read Tolkien´s stories as a child. There are also some nods to C S Lewis (where do you think "Narn" come from?) and maybe even Rudolf Steiner. 

This just came up in my YouTube feed the other day, so I decided to link to it for some kind of nostalgic reasons.  


Yes

 


I was never a big fan of "Babylon 5" (a.k.a. LOTR-in-Outer-Space), but this clip is actually quite funny. At least if you remember this old scy fy series...

Liberalernas Jimmie moment

 


Varför hotar så många Liberaler med att hoppa av nu? Liberalerna skrev ju under Tidöavtalet med SD. Precis som M och KD. Eller hur? 

Någon hycklar här. Och det verkar inte vara Jimmie Åkesson...

Saturday, March 14, 2026

Lördag

 



Dude

 

Credit: Shree Ganesh

A propos two previous blog posts. God loves bizarre ants. Adjust your theological speculations accordingly. We will now resume our regular broadcast. Thank you. 

There´s no such thing as free candy

 


So the US State Department offers 10 million dollars to whoever has information on the whereabouts of Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly selected Supreme Leader of Iran. 

Darn.

I *really* could use 10 million dollars (I assume I can make my payments in American currency rather than yuan in Western Europe?), but unfortunately I´m not privy to bro Mojtaba´s bug out location. 

So I suppose I have to weather the new oil crisis in the usual way. By cutting back my candy consumption. Yeah, really.  

Bagdad Bob


Romina Pourmokhtari har ju länge varit något av den svenska klimatpolitikens Bagdad Bob. Nu har hon tydligen bestämt sig för att Bagdad Bobba Mohamssons deal med SD. 

She looked like such a nice girl.  

Mohamsson, Smygsvensson

 


Liberalerna något, något. Fast L hade ju *något* slags stöd när anpassade sig till SD, så det *kanske* fungerar? Och kanske inte, LOL. Eftersom halva partiet tydligen tänker hoppa av. 

Det kanske räddar Centerpartiet istället? Riksdagsvalet kan ju bli...intressant. För att inte tala om regeringsförhandlingarna.  

Alien Manson family


Peter Levenda is apparently the rumored author of "Simon´s Necronomicon". This is a short excerpt from a five-hour interview (which I´m currently watching). It´s some pretty wild stuff! Think UFOs, JFK conspiracies, Soviet and Amerikan intelligence fronts, renegade Orthodox Churches, und so weiter. 

Not sure how much of it is true, tbh.

In the clip above, Levenda discusses "Men in Black" (or something similar) who supposedly followed him several times. They looked like old fashioned cultists. Think the Manson Family! It´s very common that UFO researchers report stories like this. What the fuck could it be? Actual agents? Or do you become paranoid at some point if you look too deep into this stuff? And why would *that* happen, hmmm...

Can anyone call John Keel in the astral?

Friday, March 13, 2026

Xenoparity

 


Biggest science news of the decade, nay, century? Not even sure if I understand this. 

Apparently, the Iberian harvester ant (Messor ibericus) has a very peculiar life cycle. For some reason, mating between "normal" males and queens can´t produce workers, only other males and queens. The queens therefore have to mate with males from a *completely different ant species* in order to produce hybrid workers. This other species is known as Messor structor. This is apparently considered a form of parasitism, presumably because the sperm of M. structor is effectively "stolen" by the M. ibericus queens to produce infertile workers for ibericus colonies.

Unexpectedly, colonies of the Iberian harvester ant have hybrid workers even in areas where there are no Messor structor ants, including at islands. This is where it gets weird. Really weird. Scientists have apparently found structor males inside ibericus nests even in areas where structor simply doesn´t appear in the wild?! Further research suggests that Messor ibericus queens can "clone" Messor structor males. Yes: ants of one species can have offspring of an entirely different species!

WTF?!

It´s not clear to me whether the Iberian queen mates with her own offspring in truly incestuous fashion to produce the workers, or whether another queen gets the honor, but the point is that there seems to be an entire "slave race" within the Iberian colonies, a "clonal lineage" of structor males bred for the sole purpose to father the hybrid worker-caste and then die. 

Nor is it clear to me how this could even work. I assume the sperm of Messor structor must have been "harvested" at some point in the distant past (perhaps thousands of years ago) and is now passed on somehow by the Messor ibericus queens. Which makes me wonder for how long this can continue, if the sperm deteriorates, and so on. Frankly, I had to read this stuff about five times before I got *some* kind of inkling about what on earth these guys are even talking about!

But yes, it does sound like science fiction. Especially since the two relevant species aren´t even closely related, having diverged evolutionarily about five million years ago. But perhaps what´s five million years to Man is only one day to Ant?    

Almost like science fiction: European ant "clones" members of another species

One mother for two species (the original scientific paper)

On a planet alien

 


Japanese scientists found a bizarre species of ant (bizarre *even* for ants, that is) which consist entirely of parasitic queens which reproduce by virgin birth ("cloning") and then hijack colonies of other ant species. Again: welcome to planet Earth, visitor! Where every ant is a queen...

Every ant is a queen in this parasitic species


Psychedelic Eleusis

 


Were the crazy hippies on to something, after all? Bring baq Boomer science!

Ancient Greek mystery cult used ergot  


Our destiny in the stars

 


A propos the previous (very speculative non-scientific blah) blog post, here is another far out speculation. Maybe the gods have sent 3I/ATLAS to remind us of our mortality and cosmic insignificance? It´s a portent hailing the end of the Space Age. The comet "disrupts" the Sun (Sol/Helios) and Jupiter (Zeus). That is, our inflated self-image and belief in constant (God-given) expansion.

Our destiny wasn´t in the stars after all.  

Messenger

 


I´m not a great fanboy of astrology (you know, the ancient superstitious pseudo-science blah blah), but I wonder how an astrologer would interpret the intrusion of 3I/ATLAS into "our" solar system. 

It´s been conjunct the Sun itself, and is currently passing very close to Jupiter. In astrology, both the Sun and Jupiter are very important. The Sun is the Self, while Jupiter (mythologically the king of the gods) is the Great Benefic. Comets, by contrast, are invariably seen as malefic. Recent research suggests that 3I/ATLAS is 12 billion years old! What could it mean that an ancient malefic is fucking with the Sun and Jupiter (or should I say Helios and Zeus) at the very cusp of the Age of Aquarius...

Probably nothing. I mean, it´s just some lump of dead matter, right? But if I had been an astrologer, I would probably be very, very worried right now!


Interstellar

 


Finally some *real* information on 3I/ATLAS which could be of considerable interest. A recently prepublished paper suggests that the comet might be - wait for it - 12 billion years old?! 

Maybe we should have tried to catch it, after all...

3I/ATLAS could be nearly as old as the universe itself

Amazon apes

 


A recent study shows that bonobos are just as aggressive as common chimpanzees. Another Boomer hippie myth laid to rest? 

Nah, not so fast. 

First, bonobos are apparently better at making peace than their chimp cousins. Second, there is more variation in bonobo aggression levels (at least in zoos) than among chimps. (That is, aggression levels within different groups.) 

Third - and this is surely the ideological clincher - bonobo females are just as likely to pick a fight as bonobo males, while males are more aggressive among chimpanzees. Indeed, bonobo females often attack ditto males. This has even been observed in the wild. In the Congo, five female bonobos were recently observed viciously attacking a single male!

So apparently the pygmy chimpanzee isn´t a peacenik hippie with a penchant for group sex. It´s an AMAZON APE with flocks ruled by FEMALE COALITIONS. That´s the real take away from this research. 

Bonobos are just as aggressive as chimps

Most extreme case of violence in "hippie" species recorded

We´ve found their weak spot

 

- The stupid hoomans want our
 free energy source again, I don´t think so!

Limits to growth strikes again. I mean, who knew? "It´s the electricity, stupid". 

Computing power is no longer the bottleneck - it´s energy production

Why do AI chatbots use so much energy?

I´m not saying it´s the Yeti, but it´s the Yeti

 


A fun little video about how Shambhala is guarded by highly spiritually evolved Yetis. Includes the interview with Sri M, which I linked to before (in a better version). Sounds legit, LOL. Seriously, though, the story is fascinating, but I suppose you have to be on a first name basis with Babaji to really get confirmation. And know what? Some say he is just as elusive as the Yeti... 

"Årsdagen av Jesus död"

 


Fick just en "inbjudan" i brevlådan till "Årsdagen av Jesus död" (de menar väl *Jesu* död?). Och av datumet att döma är det långfredagen som avses. Så vem i all sin dar kallar den så? Jo, Jehovas Vittnen. Den nya "snällare" versionen har tydligen en liten PR-kampanj i grannskapet. Och nej, jag planerar inte att delta. Dessutom är det relativt sent på kvällen. Men tack ändå för inbjudan, antar jag...

Fredag

 



An auspicious day

 


Friday 13, huh? OK, so here is a very auspicious picture of...Tripura Sundari, I think. Note Venus in the night sky! Venus, Friday, goddesses...that kind of stuff. OK, I have to tuck in, see y´all tomorrow. If we´re all lucky! 

Friday the 13th

 


Again??? Wasn´t there a Friday 13 in February? And now there´s another one...

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Overheard on the interwebs

 


"Beauty is the mask of the Divine. By falling in love with the mask, you eventually find the face beneath it."

Democracy before Athens

 


I heard similar stuff before, so Gemini probably isn´t entirely off the mark here, but since the system is really "tipsy" these days, please feel free to double-check it! I have also removed some weird and irrelevant sentences from the responses...

Was there a democratic polity (like a city-state) in Mesopotamia already 1,000 years (or so) before ancient Athens?

Yes, this is a fascinating area of historical revisionism. Many historians and Assyriologists, most notably Thorkild Jacobsen, have argued for the existence of what they call "Primitive Democracy" in Mesopotamia, occurring roughly between 3000 BCE and 2500 BCE—well over 2,000 years before the Golden Age of Athens.

While these were not "democracies" in the modern liberal sense, they functioned as organized polities where power was shared among a broader group of citizens rather than being held by an absolute, divine monarch.


1. The Concept: "Primitive Democracy"

In early Sumerian city-states (like Uruk, Kish, and Shuruppak), leadership was not initially a hereditary kingship (Lugal). Instead, evidence suggests that the city was governed by a Council of Elders and an Assembly of Men (likely arms-bearing citizens).

  • The Bicameral Structure: Jacobsen noted that early Mesopotamian myths (like the Epic of Gilgamesh) describe a structure similar to a two-house parliament:

    1. The Assembly of Elders: Senior statesmen or heads of clans.

    2. The Assembly of Young Men: The "warriors" or able-bodied men of the city.

2. Evidence from the Epic of Gilgamesh

The most famous evidence for this comes from the tale of Gilgamesh and Agga. When the King of Kish (Agga) threatens the city of Uruk, Gilgamesh does not simply declare war.

  • He first goes to the Elders to ask for their counsel. When they suggest surrender, he is unsatisfied.

  • He then goes to the Assembly of the Men of the City, who vote for war and resistance.

  • This demonstrates that even a legendary "strongman" like Gilgamesh was originally bound by the consensus of the community.

3. The Transition to Kingship

This democratic structure eventually collapsed due to the constant state of warfare between city-states.

  • Emergency Dictatorship: In times of crisis, the Assembly would appoint a Lugal (literally "Great Man") to lead the army.

  • The "Permanent Emergency": As wars became more frequent and prolonged, these temporary leaders refused to hand back their power to the Assembly. Over several centuries, the "Emergency Dictator" evolved into the permanent, hereditary King.


4. Comparison: Mesopotamia vs. Athens

FeatureMesopotamian "Primitive Democracy" (c. 3000 BCE)Athenian Democracy (c. 500 BCE)
OriginEmerged naturally from tribal/clan consensus.Emerged as a deliberate political reform (Cleisthenes).
AuthorityThe Assembly advised or elected temporary leaders.The Assembly (Ecclesia) held sovereign power.
End GoalEffective governance and survival.Citizenship, legal equality (isonomia).
DocumentationClay tablets, myths, and administrative records.Robust legal codes, speeches, and philosophy.

5. Why is this significant?

This challenges the traditional "Whig history" view that democracy is a uniquely Western invention that began in Greece. It suggests that collective decision-making is a fundamental human social technology that arises whenever a community is small enough for its members to exert influence but large enough to require organized cooperation.

Even the most ancient structures of human civilization began with dialogue and consensus before they were hardened into the heavy weight of absolute monarchy.


Would you like me to look into the specific roles of women in these early Mesopotamian assemblies (where they often held more status than in later periods)?

xxxxx

In the city-state of Sippar (modern-day Iraq) during the Old Babylonian period (around 1800–1600 BCE), clay tablets provide some of the most explicit evidence for a decentralized, almost "corporatist" form of urban governance.

While not a "democracy" in the Athenian sense, Sippar’s archives reveal that the city was governed by a City Council (Puhrum) where professional groups and artisans held real, documented influence.

1. The "Bab-Mullu" (The Gate of the Citizens)

In Sippar, many administrative and judicial decisions were not made in a palace, but at the City Gate. Cuneiform records describe the city council being composed of:

  • The Mayor (Rabianum): The presiding officer.

  • The Elders (Shibutu): Heads of prominent families.

  • Professional Representatives: Crucially, tablets mention the involvement of the "Overseers of the Merchants" (Wakil Tamkari) and representatives of various Craft Guilds.


2. The Artisan Councils at Ebla and Mari

A thousand miles away, the Ebla Tablets (found in modern Syria, dating to c. 2500 BCE) describe a similar phenomenon. These tablets describe a bicameral-style government where the king (En) was not absolute.

  • The "Lugal-Lugal": This was a group of "Lords" or "Elders" who functioned as a parliament.

  • Artisanal Input: Records from Mari and Ebla explicitly mention that the heads of certain technical groups—such as the Chief Smith or the Chief Weaver—were consulted on matters of state treasury and military logistics.

In these cities, the "popular" groups weren't just workers; they were considered stakeholders in the city's survival. If the "Elders" wanted to go to war, they needed the blacksmiths to agree to forge the weapons and the merchants to fund the campaign.

3. The "Colony Assembly" of Kanesh

Perhaps the most striking example of popular representation comes from the Old Assyrian Merchant Colonies (c. 1900 BCE) at Kanesh. Clay tablets from this period describe the "Karum" (The Quay or Colony Assembly).

  • The "Small and Great": The tablets explicitly state that decisions were made by the "Assembly of the Small and the Great" (ṣeher rabi).

  • Meaning: This phrasing suggests that both the wealthy elites ("the Great") and the common artisans/merchants ("the Small") had a vote or a voice in the legal and economic disputes of the city.


Summary: The Mesopotamian "Council" Model

CityDateGovernance Feature
Sippar1800 BCECraft overseers and merchants sat on the City Council (Puhrum).
Ebla2500 BCEA council of "Lords" limited the King's power.
Kanesh1900 BCEDecisions made by the "Assembly of the Small and Great."
Shuruppak2600 BCERecords of a "Bicameral" assembly of elders and young men.

Why this matters to you

This historical reality supports your interest in decentralized power. It shows that absolute monarchy was actually a later distortion. At the dawn of civilization, the "Temple-Cities" were run more like cooperatives where your craft gave you a seat at the table.

Would you like to explore the specific tablets from Sippar that describe the "trial of the commoners"?

xxxxx

The "Trial of the Commoners" is a term often used by historians to describe a specific legal phenomenon documented in the Sippar archives (and nearby Nippur), where the city's judicial power was exercised not by a king, but by the community itself.

The most famous specific case often cited as the "Trial of the Commoners" (or the "Silent Witness" case) actually comes from Nippur, but it follows the exact legal structure used in Sippar.


1. The Case: The "Nippur Murder Trial" (c. 1900 BCE)

This tablet is one of the most remarkable legal documents in human history because it shows a king (Ur-Ninurta) deferring his power to a "popular assembly" to decide a complex moral and legal issue.

  • The Crime: Three men murdered a temple official. They then told the official's wife, who remained silent and did not report the crime.

  • The "Democratic" Intervention: The King did not simply execute them. He referred the case to the Assembly (Puhrum) of Nippur.

  • The Representation: The tablets list the members of this assembly. It wasn't just nobles; it included artisans, a bird-catcher, a potter, and a gardener. These were the "Commoners" acting as a jury of peers.

2. The Verdict of the "Popular Groups"

A heated debate ensued within the assembly, which is transcribed on the tablets:

  • The Prosecution: Some members argued that the wife was an accomplice because of her silence and should be executed alongside the murderers.

  • The Defense (The Commoners' View): The "lower" members of the assembly argued for her. They stated that she was not a participant in the crime and that her silence was the result of her being a victim of circumstances, not a conspirator.

  • The Result: The Assembly of Commoners acquitted the wife. The King accepted their verdict. This is the first recorded instance of a "jury of peers" overriding a potential state execution.


3. Professional Representation in Sippar

In Sippar, the "popular" groups were even more formalized. We have tablets where the "Assembly of the City of Sippar" and the "Karum of Sippar" (the merchant council) acted together.

  • The Representatives: The tablets explicitly mention the "Overseer of the Barbers" and the "Chief of the Carpentry" acting as legal witnesses and representatives in property disputes.

  • The Function: These artisans had a "Seal of Office." When a "commoner" was on trial or involved in a contract, the head of their respective guild sat on the council to ensure the law was applied fairly to their class.


4. Why this is "Democratic"

Historians like Thorkild Jacobsen argued that this proves Mesopotamia had a functioning Judicial Democracy long before Greece.

  • Decentralization: The King was not the law; the City was the law.

  • Inclusion: A gardener or a potter had the legal right to debate a murder case alongside a high priest.

  • The "Gate" Justice: Decisions were made at the city gate, in public view, where any citizen could observe.


Summary of the "Commoner" Influence

ElementThe "Sippar/Nippur" Model
JuryComposed of artisans, bird-catchers, and laborers.
PowerCould acquit defendants even against "State" interests.
IdentityRepresentatives were chosen based on their craft/guild.
LegacyForerunner to the idea of "Common Law" and public trial.

This suggests that 4,000 years ago, your identity as an "Artisan" (your craft) would have given you a direct voice in the justice of your city. Absolute, faceless law had not yet fully crushed the individual's role in the collective.

Prophecy?

 


Overheard on the interwebs: "Trump´s destiny is to die in office. He is a Sun King". But wasn´t the sun king ritually sacrificed? 

The hinge of ages

 


Some astrological speculations c/o John Michael Greer on the recent conjunction between Saturn and Neptune at zero degrees Aries. Last time it happened was 2,500 years ago - right at the cusp of the Axial Age.

Interesting, at least if you believe in astrology. Then, the predictions get more and more mundane (pun intended). Trump´s attack on Iran (which happened about eight days later) doesn´t show up in the charts at all?! If you want to be charitable, the indications of trouble at sea for the UK, or the inability of the US military to deal with unspecified impending changes, points to a war. But note that the Middle East is supposed to be calm...

Note also the peculiar optimism of the chart, since Jupiter (the Great Benefic) is exalted. This supposedly will make the working classes regain some of their lost standard of living. Sounds highly unlikely in the middle of an impending oil crisis...unless it sagely heralds a socialistic war economy in which the poor will benefit from higher rations!

Saturn-Neptune great conjunctions in Aries are very rare, but Saturn-Neptune conjunctions in general are not. As I noted in a previous post, astrologers have noted that the previous three have been correlated to dramatic changes in Russian history: the 1917 revolutions, the death of Stalin 1953, and the collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe in 1989 (which triggered the dissolution of the Soviet Union two years later). The most dramatic thing that could happen to the Russian Federation in 2026 is (of course) the death of Vladimir Putin and the military victory of Ukraine...

The Hinge of Ages: Saturn conjunct Neptune

Oh, and what happened to this divination? It actually sounded more correct!   

Catastasis Mundi

But as usual, we just have to wait and see...

Torsdag

 



Wake up to politics

 



I´ve covered this before, but opinion polls supposedly suggest that most Trump/MAGA supporters are in favor of Operation Epic Fury. The number of MAGA Republicans who support the war is much larger than the number of non-MAGA Republicans who do so. This is true both in percentages and in absolute numbers. Only 3% of Republicans identify clearly as both MAGA and anti-war. From this, some gadflies conclude that there isn´t a "split in MAGA" over the Iran war. It´s all sound and (non-epic) fury from the legacy media, signifying nothing. 

However, there seems to be a problem with the relevant polls.  

Those who self-identify as MAGA usually take that to mean "100% support for Trump". The label is ideologically empty and is used to express extreme trust in the person of Donald J Trump. Those who oppose the Iran war will probably not identify as MAGA for that very reason. But this skews the result. If "MAGA" just means "I love Trump", then almost *by definition* MAGAs will be much less likely to oppose Trump´s policies on any issue. 

The writer of the first article linked below believe that the midterm elections *will* cause trouble for Trump since many new Trump voters in 2024 were independents and are likely to switch their allegiance (many of these might be opposed to the war or dissatisifed for other reasons). However, he believes that this isn´t the same thing as a major split in MAGA, since the MAGAs who are "Trumpier than Trump" (Steven Bannon, Tucker Carlson, MTG) command very little support.

I can´t help wondering if political commentators are simply talking pass each other. They have different definitions of what "MAGA" is supposed to be. The ideologically orthodox populists may be a minuscule group and perhaps nobody outside their circles gives a damn about what Bannon is saying, but if a larger group of independents leave the "MAGA coalition" (in the broader sense), Trump is in trouble anyway! And that´s true even if this particular group is smaller than the MAGA cultists for whom Trump simply can do nothing wrong. Elections can be decided by a few swing voters... 

Another interesting finding (second link) is that 26% of Republican voters believe that Trump started the Iran war to distract from the Epstein files, while a whopping 81% of Democrats think so.