What´s up with the Donald and his "America First" foreign policy? Or with the Trump Administration in general? Trump´s first term was marked by chaos combined with steps towards a "RINO" or "GOP-e" normalization. The whole thing came crashing down in 2021, when Trump executed a hard "populist" turn and tacitly backed his supporters storming the Capitol in DC.
Or did it? Rather than being cast out into outer darkness, presumably gnashing his teeth, Trump´s grip on the Republican party seems to have *tightened* after the Capitol riots. And after the 2024 elections, the Democrat and RINO opposition has more or less collapsed in the face of a Trumpite offensive much more well-organized than in 2016-2017. That activists and even some elected officials are demoralized after four years of failure with Biden (not to mention the Harris coup against him) is perhaps understandable, but can it really explain everything that´s happening right now? Surely some kind of structural factors are at play here? Unless, of course, we´re just seeing a short "Indian summer" of Trumpism, and everything will crash and burn later this year...
One structural factor could be that the US economy is even worse off than we think, perhaps because of spiralling debt (COVID lockdowns cough cough), threats to the dollar as a reserve currency, or maybe something about the gold prices? And even that´s just scratching the surface. Peak oil or something similar may be the underlying cause. The Trump Admin is responding to this crisis by slashing the federal bureaucracy and the NGOs, thereby reducing expenditure. This has the additional benefit of hitting at the institutional base of the Democratic Party (and perhaps the RINOs). Is the US dollar really to structurally weak to be salvaged? Is that why the Dems don´t really have a good counter-strategy? Note also that Trump demands tangible physical rare earth minerals from Ukraine as "repayment" for US monetary aid, suggesting that some kind of turn away from paper money or blips on a computer screen is under way.
But sure, I´m just speculating...
Things might get *wild* if and when some US administration decides to ax Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security!
Note also that sections of the capitalist class (or should I call them donor class) apostasized to the Trump camp (or pretended to do so) already during the election campaign. As in Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos. Elon Musk was already on the Trump train by then. However, I can´t help thinking that these guys are just figureheads. Are their assets even worth anything? Surely the future doesn´t lay with owning newspapers or some TV network, or a shitty site like Facebook, or a fake subsidy sink like Tesla? We might see a turn (or turn back) towards gold, mineral wealth, fossil fuels, food, and so on.
The foreign policy of Trump and his associates is frankly incomprehensible. As I long suspected, the grand strategy is evidently to switch the "traditional" American policy of backing China and confronting Russia to its exact opposite: backing Russia and confronting China. What I fail to see is how this *really* helps the United States in the long run. Or even in the short run, since Russia and China seem to be rather firm allies. This in turn means that the pro-Russian far right in Europe is also pro-Chinese. Which probably explains Steve Bannon´s failure to win the European far right to his perspective (which is identical with Trump´s). Also, the Euro-far-right is anti-American and might easily became anti-Israeli, too. They might see Trump and Musk as temporary allies, but otherwise probably see the United States as a cosmopolitan and decadent (dys)civilization. While opportunism is always a thing (Meloni cough cough), why should the European far right help the US to split the two Eurasian land powers from each other? Why not propose that the US simply joins the Russo-Chinese alliance?
At the moment, Trump´s policy towards Ukraine and by extension the EU (and de facto his NATO allies) has a rather Putinesque quality. Of course, it´s possible that this is simply bullying ("the Biff Tannen presidency") or a kind of "madman strategy" (but strangely enough directed at US allies rather than its enemies). After all, Trump paused his punitive tariffs against Canada and Mexico (well, kind of) after they complied (kind of) with his demands. By scaring the hell out of Zelensky, the Godfather in DC wants Ukraine to hand over its mineral wealth to the Amerikan Empire. But let´s assume that it´s more than this, and that the administration actually has a thought-out geopolitical strategy. How likely is that Russia will take the bait?
Highly unlikely. So unlikely that it´s difficult to comprehend how even a loose cannon like Trump can think so. Does he believe in the old adage "the Russians are at least White", as opposed to the intrinsically unreliable Orientals? From the perspective of European history, "racial" similarity doesn´t count for much. There are no other pressing reasons for Russia to break with China either. Russia already occupies 20% of Ukraine (including most of its coveted mineral deposits), sells oil to China, buys its technology, and even uses tens of thousands of conscript soldiers from China´s ally North Korea to fight off the Ukrainians from the Kursk region. Trump may change his mind tomorrow morning (no fuck), become a lame duck after a failed midterm election, or even be assassinated. The next president might be a Dem or a RINO. The Paramount Leader of China will surely remain, and so will Putin. The only thing that might make Putin wary of the ChiComs is if they become *too* overbearing (always a possibility, since the PRC probably calls the shots within the Eurasian bloc). But even then, it´s not overtly clear why he should ally with a fickle America, rather than India or even France.
The problem with Trump´s tactics should now be obvious. He is bullying his NATO allies in the hope of reaching a goal that is probably unreachable. But Trump´s threats, tantrums and gyrations strain the trans-atlantic link to the breaking point. How can the European nations be sure that a Trump administration will honor "Article 5" and actually come to their rescue should Russia actually stage an attack, say against Finland or Lithuania? Many in the Swedish government already doubt this (mostly off the record for the time being). Sweden joined NATO, put up with a grueling admission process, and signed a far-reaching bilateral defense agreement with the US precisely to become more secure after Putin had gone mustang in Eastern Europe. Was it all for nothing?
The two strongest NATO member-states in Europe are presumably Britain and France. The UK have always been "Airstrip One", so I don´t expect them to do much of anything. France is another matter. It would be ironic if Trump´s gyrations would make France seek a détente with China...and even with Russia, should the United States chose the path of confronting both. I suppose we could see the Donald as a brave gambler but he may end up losing everything. And he´s not gambling with his own money, either. Peace in Europe is in play...
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