War winter

 

Never a NATO member, huzzah!
Credit: Auguste Gusteau

Russia allegedly is going to demand of the USA that NATO expells all its post-Cold War member-nations. Obviously, no US administration will agree to such a demand. Not even the Trump rump. And if they do agree, the real decision will just be postponed and then nullified by the next admin. 

The Russians must know this. So why aren´t they raising more realistic demands? Say, the Donbass and Odessa. Or the lifting of sanctions. The whole thing resembles the bizarre Russian ultimatum from late 2021, when they essentially demanded that the United States dissolves NATO altogether and leave Europe. I assumed at the time that this was some kind of weird opening move in a game of negotiations which would end more realistically. In demanding, say, the Donbass or the lifting of sanctions...

Instead, Russia started the deadliest war in Europe since World War II. 

The most "rational" explanation for the above is that Russia is consciously playing a long game. They are banking on the Western alliance to split. If not now, maybe by 2030? Or 2035, perhaps? In the meanwhile, they will grind down Ukraine as much possible. Hence, no peace. But there is of course another possibility: Putin has painted himself into a corner and doesn´t know how to end the war. Not even on terms favorable to the Russian Federation. 

Are we witnessing some kind of very deadly "game of chicken"? The Western alliance might absolutely split. Or it might be weakened by the next economic crisis. But about Russia? As of now, four years into the conflict, they clearly can´t defeat NATO. Or even Ukraine!

Unless something very dramatic happens in Moscow very soon, I´m not optimistic...