There will be flash wars

 

"The future of modern warfare" is one of the scariest documentaries I´ve ever seen. I somehow assumed, a bit cynically to be sure, that the existence of nuclear weapons made world war *less* likely, indeed, almost impossible. This production, made by the German public broadcaster DW but with most content in English, shows how a nuclear war can start anyway. The reason? IT. Or more precisely, cyber attacks... 

Apparently, many of NATO´s early warning systems against Russian nuclear missiles are vulnerable, since they use digital signals rather than the good old analogous ones. Digital technology can be hacked. Indeed, in a world where everything and everyone is hacked on a daily basis by both state and private actors, it´s difficult to see a situation in which military systems would somehow be exempted from this. Further, the early warning systems are often "multi-task", and are used to track both nuclear and conventional missiles. This means that Russia has a vested interest in hacking them even if they *don´t* intend to start a nuclear war, a move that would then be interpreted by the United States as a preparation for exactly such a war! Thus, an escalation of cyber hostilites between the superpowers could potentially lead to a nuclear conflagration, as both sides misinterpret the purpose of the other side´s actions...

Another thing that could transform the battlefields of the future are "autonomous systems", weapons based on Artificial Intelligence that can operate on their own, without any human guiding them. One example is called "loitering munitions", really a kind of weaponized drones that can fly around autonomously for hours after launch ("loiter"), scanning a wide area for targets, and then destroy it by essentially flying right at it, hence their nickname "kamikaze drones". Israel is a leading manufacturer of this technology, and it was used by Azerbaijan in its recent war against Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. The documentary shows some pretty absurd Azeri propaganda clips showing this deadly weapon. Even more problematic are "swarms", i.e. swarms of drones used to confuse or attack the air defence systems of the enemy. Swarms can only be fought by other swarms, and will therefore lead to a new arms race. Since the swarming drones are autonomous, we might even get a situation in which a war escalates with no human imput whatever! This is known as a "flash war". 

Like cyber attacks, drone development is virtually impossible to stop, since drone technology and AI also have a host of civilian applications. Another thing making arms control extremely difficult is that these new weapon systems are "software" rather than "hardware". It´s one thing to control physical missiles, quite another to regulate the programming capabilities of the enemy. The great powers are reluctant to get onboard any control measures. For instance, China opposes "use" of these killer robots, but not their development.

One thing never explained in "The future of modern warfare" is where the microchips come from. I assume drones have such? Is this state of the art technology just as dependent on Taiwan as the mobile phone or computer industries? If so, what happens if China takes Taiwan? Also, can terrorist groups or even individuals somehow get their hands on these drones, and if so, can they learn how to use them? Private actors can certainly learn how to hack sensitive systems... 

As usual, I tend to become "philosophical" when watching stuff like this. Since our problems seem downright impossible to solve, what in heaven´s name are we supposed to *learn* from our human-earthly existence? That the material world really, truly sucks? OK, message recieved. 

If DW is right, I wouldn´t be too surprised if a nuclear war (á la Dr Strangelove) might take place at some point during the 21st century. Perhaps even within my lifetime...