At least we don´t have to worry about *this* shit...
Is it really true that the Amish has such a population growth that they will become the majority of the US population if the population growth just continues like today?
Not quite — that’s a big exaggeration, though the Amish do have unusually high population growth for a modern group.
Here’s the reality:
1. Current Amish growth rate
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Amish families average 6–7 children who typically remain Amish as adults.
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They have a doubling time of roughly 20–25 years.
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In 2025, the Amish population is estimated at ~380,000–400,000 in the US.
2. Extrapolation fantasy vs. reality
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If you theoretically extended that growth without change, Amish numbers would grow like this:
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~0.4 million today
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~0.8 million in 25 years
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~1.6 million in 50 years
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~3.2 million in 75 years
This is fast compared to the general US population growth (~0.5% per year), but…
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Even at that rate, it would take many centuries for them to be a majority.
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By then, social and environmental changes, land availability, and possible cultural shifts would almost certainly slow growth.
3. Why the claim circulates
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Demographers have noted that the Amish are one of the few groups in the developed world with sustained high fertility.
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In contrast, US average fertility is ~1.6 children per woman (below replacement).
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That contrast inspires “what if” scenarios, but those ignore migration, intermarriage, and attrition over long periods.
4. Realistic expectations
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The Amish population will almost certainly continue to grow rapidly in relative terms for the next century.
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They might reach a few million by the year 2100 — significant, but nowhere near a majority.
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For them to actually become the US majority, you’d need not just continued fertility but zero assimilation and exponential growth over 200–300 years, which is very unlikely.
If you want, I can run the actual exponential projection math to see just how long it would take for Amish to become 51% of the US population under current growth rates. That makes the “Amish takeover” idea look… well, comically distant.
Yes, please.
Short answer: under naïve “nothing changes” assumptions, the Amish would not be a US majority for ~220–330 years, depending on parameters. That’s many centuries—so the popular claim is vastly overstated.
What I calculated (simple exponential scenarios; details shown in the table I generated for you):
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Starting point (2025): Amish ~0.40 million, US ~335 million.
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Amish growth modeled by a doubling time of 20–25 years (≈ 2.8–3.5%/yr).
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US total population grows at 0.3–0.7%/yr.
Results (first year Amish reach ≥51% of the total, if ever within 400 years):
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DT 20y, US growth 0.5%/yr → majority around 2254.
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DT 22.5y, US growth 0.5%/yr → majority around 2288.
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DT 25y, US growth 0.5%/yr → majority around 2323.
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Faster US growth or slower Amish doubling pushes it later (as far as 2352 in the runs).
I also plotted the mid-case (DT 22.5y, US 0.5%/yr) so you can see the SLOW climb in share this century (still <1% by 2100), with steep gains only in the 2200s.
Caveats (big ones):
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These are toy models. Real populations don’t grow exponentially forever.
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Amish growth depends on land availability, retention, vocational shifts, and possible policy/cultural changes.
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Even small changes (e.g., retention dipping from ~85–90% to ~70–75%) would delay a “majority” far beyond these dates—or prevent it entirely.
If you want, I can tweak assumptions (different starting population, retention, or a logistic slowdown) and rerun the projection.
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