Welcome to the turning point

Let´s be honest. Of course the high energy prices are primarily due to the Western sanctions against Russia, and the Russian decision to hit back hard by weaponizing its gas exports. The Western world could (perhaps) have planned for such an evantuality by expanding nuclear power or exploited alternative sources of gas, but since it didn´t...well, here we are. It´s wholly possible that we will experience another lockdown this winter, now because of energy shortages (and, if we´re really unlucky, a "new" COVID pandemic and certain after-effects of the "first" one). 

How will people react to this? Here´s a clue: probably not by picking up books about peak oil or limits to growth, nodding along as they read. 

They are more likely to draw the (in a sense correct) conclusion that the shortages are due to the war in the Ukraine, and that the prices would plummet if only the confrontation between Russia and the West could be ended somehow. Then, everything would go back to normal again. The "peace" camp will argue that Western support for Ukraine must end. The "war" camp will argue for regime change in Moscow. The doves will be in majority in southern Europe and many nations (though by no means all) in the former Eastern Europe. The hawks will form a majority in northern Europe. Germany and France are, perhaps, the keys to the situation. 

But regardless of whether Europe choses freedom or Finlandization, the so-called Green energy transition is out. The need for fossil fuels (and nuclear power) is simply too great. Note the irony that the Green transition (and appended "movements") will be phased out at exactly the same moment that the climate crisis goes into overdrive...

Note also the increasingly authoritarian character of globo-liberalism, as it tries to fight equally authoritarian right-wing populism and nationalism. 

So that´s the future, then. Resource wars for "energy security", or a Europe dominated by a Sino-Russian alliance. More fossil fuels, or more fossil fuel populism if the establishment tries to cling to its wind turbines a bit too long. A generally more repressive political and social atmosphere, regardless of what government is in power. And in the background, a climate crisis that continues unabated, oblivious to both the conservative denialists and the left-liberal "activists" (who really just want "woke" capitalism with more wind turbines). 

Welcome to the turning point.