A cult classic

"The Long Emergency" by James Howard Kunstler is a well-known book (and something of a cult classic) in the doomer genre.

Kunstler argues that world civilization in general and the United States in particular are going to collapse during the 21st century due to depletion of fossil fuel reserves and climate change caused by the very same fossil fuels (an ironic combination). With cheap oil gone forever, our modern way of life will come tumbling down. Pandemic diseases, mass starvation, inner city riots, resource wars and terrorism will become common occurrences. So will a rise in religious fundamentalism and racism.

Kunstler doesn't believe that alternative energy sources will save us. Natural gas reserves are too tiny to make a difference, turning coal into oil too expensive, and solar and wind simply aren't feasible. Nor are biofuels. Nuclear power is a more realistic option, since uranium is relatively abundant, but nuclear power plants can only produce electricity. Where should we get the rest of our energy needs? Besides, all these forms of power-generation require cheap oil to begin with - how else to build nuclear power plants, fuel the machines needed to grow biofuels, or produce solar batteries? Nuclear power also has the disadvantage of needing a strong, centralized state apparatus. Who would finance, operate and defend nuclear facilities in a long emergency in which the modern nation-states quite simply crack?

The author believes that American society will be forced to revert to local solutions as the crisis deepens. In a worst case scenario, feudalism might reappear as desperate city-dwellers look for work in the countryside, becoming peons to those fortunate enough to own land. Child labour will reappear, and most people will never get a real education. Horses rather than machines will be used in agriculture. Of course, it's very difficult to see how a nation of 250 million people can simply revert to 17th century conditions. Kunstler doesn't see it either, pointing out that a neo-feudal system will be extremely unstable, especially in a situation when many private citizens own guns and are ready to use them. A generalized civil war might follow, perhaps between Whites, Hispanics and Blacks.

What I found interesting about the book is at Kunstler actually *accepts* many arguments used by pro-establishment writers: the modern economy is dependent on fossil fuels; these fuels cannot be replaced by solar, wind and biofuels; and nuclear power could generate most of our electricity. It's almost as if he'd been reading Vaclav Smil or Robert Bryce! The crucial difference, of course, is that Kunstler doesn't believe any of this will save us anyway. Fossil fuels are non-renewable, climate change can neither be stopped nor adapted to, and nuclear power is too dependent on cheap fuels and political stability to be feasible in a world on the brink of disaster.

Well, let's hope he's wrong...