Suspicions

 

The new leadership of Syria has indicated that they want continuing good relations with Russia, and that the Russian military can keep its bases in the country. Since the rebels overthrew a Russian-backed regime, that´s somewhat surprising...or maybe not. 

It confirms my suspicions that Putin made a deal with Turkey´s president Erdogan about a swift transition of power in Syria, back-stabbing Bashar Assad in the process. The reason obviously being that Russia wants to concentrate on the war in Ukraine. Propping up the Baathist regime was apparently too costly. If the Russian military can nevertheless keep its bases in Syria, Putin can still have some leverage in the Middle East. The bases are apparently also used as transit points to Africa, where Russia has expanded its influence in recent years. 

A pro-Turkish/Islamist Syria still somehow backed by Russia could become a dangerous enemy to Israel, which may also explain a thing or two. Israel has de facto defeated Hamas but has now gotten a new and presumably Hamas-friendly neighbor at its northern  border...

Turkey´s NATO membership looks more and more like a bizarre anachronism. How long can the United States permit Erdogan to do backroom deals with Putin and expand the quasi-Ottoman Empire to the Israeli borders? The best "solution" (such as it is) to this problem is presumably to continue US support for the Kurdish SDF in northern Syria. 

For his part, Trump has said that the United States should stay out of Syria, but that guy can say whatever. Let´s see if the geopolitical realities will come back to bite him in the ass!