Equations

 

The geopolitical equations of the incoming Trump administration don´t add up. Trump wants (or says he wants) a swift solution to the war in Ukraine, presumably so he can concentrate on challenging Iran in the Middle East and China pretty much everywhere. But Iran and China are Russian allies. So why should Russia make peace with Trump, so he can go after their chief backers instead? Indeed, what would a Ukrainian peace plan even look like in a situation in which Russia has momentum, both on the battlefield and economically? I suppose it´s *possible* that the Russians might stop the war if given a really large chunk of Ukraine, Crimea and Donbass say, but why should the Russians just give up additional territory without a fight? They currently control a far larger area. If I had been Putin, I would simply ignore Trump and Rubio. Or perhaps “play” them a bit. And continue the war, period.

What could the United States do in such a situation? They could tell Zelensky to surrender and accept a neutral or Finlandized rump Ukraine. But this will probably lead to serious strains within the Western alliance, including both the EU and NATO. France and Germany have often been at odds with the United States (under both Trump and Biden). This would resurface, with a vengeance, even if the present governments of those nations remain in power. The opposition is pro-Russian. And then there´s Turkey, the strongest military power within NATO after the United States, but clearly more beholden to Putin or Hamas than to whoever thinks he´s bigwig in DC this time around.

The second line of option would be for Trump to reinvite Mike Pompeo and the war hawks to his admin, change its policy, and go all in for a confrontation with Russia. But the traditional geopolitics in such cases is to split Russia and China from each other. Can the US really take on both at the same time? And why should China break with Russia and line up with the United States? If Beijing ever moves against Putin, they will demand a big prize for their U-turn. Taiwan, for starters! Also, the European nations would have to rearm themselves. Is that really likely under present circumstances? Take Germany for instance, this fraudulent “economic powerhouse” the “Green transition” of which is really brokered by Russian oil and gas. Its military is so weak that Poland could easily defeat it in a shooting war. Besides, an aggressive NATO posture against Russia will probably lead to Turkey and Hungary leaving, making the military alliance look like a joke.

There could still be some openings for the Western alliance. The Sunni Arabs probably don´t want to be dominated by Iran or Turkey. Somewhat ironically, this marriage of convenience might save Israel! Japan might fear a dominant Sinosphere in Asia. But otherwise? Once again: The geopolitical equations simply don´t add up.

2025 might become a very bleak year.