Last years in Jerusalem?

 

Some speculations…

It seems to be a common opinion that Israel “cannot survive” without direct US military and economic aid. That´s certainly a possibility, but probably not for the reasons many think: that Israel would be defeated (and the Jews driven into the sea) by some kind of united Muslim and/or Arab invasion force. That seems like the least probable outcome, given the highly fractious character of Mideast power relations, unless some outside great power (say Russia or China) brokers such a coalition, while Israel is unable to find another great power patron after an American withdrawal.

But why would Israel be unable to do so? We could easily imagine a scenario in which Russia and China becomes adversaries after a US collapse, China perhaps supporting militant Arabs, while Russia supports Israel. Or we could imagine France or a resurgent Germany trying to meddle in Mideast affairs, perhaps by supporting Israel. Or we could imagine a regional power struggle, with Turkey backing Israel against the Arabs as part of a Neo-Ottoman scheme, or moderate Arab states backing Israel against Iran. It´s not clear at all why Israel would automatically “lose” in a Machiavellian conflict of this kind. Besides, Russia and China might become weakened, too, since the general trend is towards the decline of modern civilization. Or does anyone seriously think that the ruble or the yuan will simply take over the role played by the dollar today?

My guess is that Israel – if it collapses – will do so for internal reasons. First, Israel clearly isn´t one nation, but really a patchwork of many different communities, nominally held together by their Jewishness, but actually by the high standard of living. If the economy drastically declines, all Jews who can pass for White will probably leave the country and move (or move back) to North America, Western Europe or Australia – unless anti-Semitism there becomes too much of a problem. Why stay in an increasingly impoverished and dangerous Israel? And many “colored” Jews could probably negotiate asylum in India, since they are reliably anti-Muslim. Even if India becomes more poor in the future, perhaps the Jews could find physical safety among Hindus. Add to this continued friction in Israel between secular Jews and Orthodox Jews, or between “the left” and the right, or between Jews and Israeli Arabs.

Could Israel keep its Western-style democratic system in a situation like this? Probably not. It might either become more like Lebanon, with distinct communities “balancing” each other in perpetuity, or like Syria, with an authoritarian regime lording it over a multi-communitarian nation. I doubt very much that light-skinned Jews from the Western world would like to live in such a nation rather than in, say, Canada or Norway. But, of course, that assumes that the Western world will stay more or less as it is today. But what if the West descends into anarchy, becomes Islamized or turns fascist with an anti-Semitic edge?

Maybe the Jews will become trapped in their Machiavellian hellhole.