The pro-Russian party Smer (alias Smer-SD and other aliases) won a plurality of votes in the recent Slovak parliamentary elections. Usually, nobody much cares about elections in Slovakia - one of the smallest member-nations of the EU and NATO - but this year, everything is different due to the war in neighboring Ukraine. Slovakia´s pro-Western government have apparently shipped off a substantial amount of arms to Ukraine and also welcomed Ukrainian refugees. They also voted yes to Swedish and Finnish NATO membership.
Smer could change all this. Led by former prime minister Robert Fico, this "Social Democratic" party (really a kind of left-populist nationalists) have promised to discontinue all military aid to Ukraine and might also attempt to stop further EU sanctions against Russia. If so, Slovakia would become a bit like Viktor Orbán´s Hungary.
Or will it? Could it all be a false alarm? With 23% of the vote, Fico´s party needs the support of other political parties to form a coalition government. But one of these possible coalition partners is led by Peter Pellegrini, another former prime minister and a personal rival of Fico´s. Pellegrini, then a high-ranking member of Smer-SD, took over as prime minister when Fico was forced to resign in 2018 after a number of mafia-related scandals (yes, the Italian mob is active in Slovakia). Later, Pellegrini and Fico had a fall out, prompting Pellegrini to form his own political party, Hlas-SD, apparently a kind of Smer-SD copycat.
However, the personal conflict between the two populists might complicate any coalition negotiations, or threaten the stability of a future Fico-Pellegrini administration. Which brings me to my next remark. In contrast to Hungary, long dominated by Orbán´s Fidesz, Slovakia´s political landscape is notoriously fractious. Unstable coalition governments come and go, old political parties dissolve, new are formed, and so on. Think Italy! Thus, any coalition headed by Fico might turn out to be short lived. There are also cynics who point out that Fico´s rhetoric might not be entirely in line with his actual politics when in power. After all, Fico has been prime minister of Slovakia twice before, and yet, the country is still a EU-NATO member in good standing.
When the chips are really down, the future of Ukraine is decided in Washington DC. Not by a snap election in some obscure Central European backwater...
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