The secret history

"Fred och fruktan: Sveriges säkerhetspolitiska historia 1918-2000" is a book by Wilhelm Agrell, a Swedish historian specializing in topics related to the Cold War and Swedish national security policy. The book was published in 2000 and is only available in Swedish. When Agrell was a rookie scholar during the early 1980´s, he was kindly informed that everything related to Sweden and the Cold War was "boring" and not worth looking into. Besides, the Cold War had ended already in 1963?! Agrell later realized that the "boredom thesis" was part and parcel of a gigantic cover-up of national security policy. Nominally non-aligned during the Cold War, Sweden was really a Western (US/NATO) ally and asset. This was the best kept public secret in the country, and everyone was expected to play along...

Only a very short summary of the book´s contents can be attempted here. As indicated by the title, it starts long before the Cold War with two other controversial episodes: Swedish action (or non-action) during the Winter War and World War II. During the 1930´s, Sweden had built a close alliance with Finland, an alliance obviously directed against the Soviet Union. But when Stalin actually attacked Finland in 1939-40 (the Winter War), Sweden choose to break the alliance, rather than send the Swedish military to Finland´s aid. (Swedish volunteers were permitted to participate in the war, though.) Agrell doesn´t believe that a Swedish military intervention would have changed the outcome of the war. However, it did create an enormous credibility crisis for Sweden. During World War II, Sweden got into similar problem with Norway, which had been occupied by the Nazis. Sweden wouldn´t allow Norwegian resistance fighters access to Swedish territory, instead permitting Nazi Germany to transit troops through Swedish territory. Sweden also continued exporting large amounts of iron ore to Germany. Yet, the Swedish government claimed to be neutral in the war! When it became obvious that the Allies were going to win, Sweden seamlessly changed tack and became de facto pro-Allied instead. The complex great power games could lead to situations as ironic as they were tragic. During the non-aggression pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, Sweden recognzied the Soviet annexation of the Baltic republics. When the Western powers were allied with the Soviets, Sweden had to extradite Baltic refugees who had served on the German side in the war, back to the Soviet Union. Thus, Sweden ended up "anti-Baltic" on both occasions!

But the bulk of "Fred och fruktan" is of course about the Cold War. Norway and Denmark joined NATO, while Finland became "Finlandized" by the Soviet Union. "Finlandization" could be described as a kind of imposed neutrality. Sweden, by contrast, remained voluntarily neutral. Or did it? Agrell describes Swedish politics during this period (circa 1948 to 1989) as almost schizophrenic, with politicians and even military at every level engaged in a kind of doublethink. In 2000, when the book was published, there was no longer any doubt that Sweden had secretely cooperated with the United States and NATO, despite official assurances to the contrary. Swedish military air fields had been rebuilt to accommodate NATO fighter planes in the event of a crisis. Meanwhile, Swedish military planes carried out spy missions over Soviet territory. To mention just two examples! 

Ironically, Agrell believes that the Swedish military doctrine during the Cold War was all wrong and could have led to extremely dangerous consequences had a war actually broken out. The Swedish political and military leaderships were convinced that Sweden would not be the Soviets´ first target in the event of a war. Instead, the main theatre would be Central Europe. This would give Sweden advance warning and ample time to mobilize its forces, thereby making it harder for the Soviet Union to invade it at a later date. This idea was a virtual dogma during the Cold War. It was also combined with the idea that aid from the Western alliance would be forthcoming at this point. After the end of the Cold War, it was revealed that the real Soviet plan was the exact opposite: to attack Sweden in full force almost immediately in the event of a huge military conflict in Europe. Sweden´s Western ties would have been completely useless. (These scenarios all presuppose a conventional war between the superpowers, at least initially.) 

Agrell seems baffled by two national security topics, and I don´t think he is alone in this. One is the seeming U-turn in Swedish foreign policy under Social Democratic leader Olof Palme (Prime Minister 1969-76 and 1982-86). Palme was a harsh critic of the United States in general and the Vietnam War in particular, and under his premiership Sweden established amicable relations with various national liberation movements in the Third World generally considered to be in the Soviet orbit, such as the Sandinistas in Nicaragua or the ANC in South Africa. When Palme was assassinated in 1986, many on the left suspected that the unknown gunman worked for some foreign intelligence service or domestic far right group. Yet, while Palme was busy condemning the US, the Swedish military continued cooperating with NATO as if nothing happened! Agrell seems to believe that Palme was faking it, while Gunnar Wall (whose book "Konspiration Olof Palme" I review elsewhere on this blog) believe that the controversial Prime Minister was killed because he genuinely turned to the left. The other baffling topic are the submarine intrusions into Swedish territorial waters during the 1980´s and early 1990´s. At the time, Sweden clearly accused the Soviet Union. Agrell doesn´t know what to think. Some of the "submarine sounds" picked up by the Swedish navy could have been made by animals, while observations of submarines and alien divers made by the public smacked of mass hysteria. Even more weirdly, the mystery submarines kept coming even after the collapse of the Soviet Union! Since it´s difficult to believe that the military could be so amateurish, Agrell nevertheless reaches the conclusion that Soviet submarines were active in Swedish waters... 

The most disturbing - and fascinating (after a fashion) - phenomenon described in the book is the official lie about Swedish neutrality during the Cold War, how it was perpetrated on all levels of society (remember the "boredom thesis") and how many in the general population were brainwashed into believing it. This raises obvious questions, not raised by the author, if there are *other* official lies, perpetrated for just as long, perhaps still today? The most obvious candidate would be the claim that Olof Palme was killed by a lone gunman, but there are many others. Swedish immigration and integration policy has long been a shipwreck, yet nobody is supposed to talk about it, and few did until recently. In the near future, the claim that we are actively fighting climate change might become another official lie. If an entire nation (or is it faux nation) can be turned into a Masonic fraternity once, why not again?