For the record

 

Some drama is building in the United States. Again! I´m old enough to remember the rumor back in 2016 that Barron Trump is autistic. However, I didn´t know Melania Trump had actually sued somebody for spreading it. 

It will be interesting to see the reactions of Trump supporters if and when this supposed fact becomes a thing. Since MAGA probably see autism as evidence of demon possession, I assume they will simply deny that Barron is neuro-divergent (the pro-Trump MAGA-ites, obviously). However, MAHA might show him sympathy. Assuming MAHA is still a thing? 

Pakman is (of course) right that the Democrats will fuck up if they start making fun of Barron´s alleged autism. But why does he have to point that out at all? Hmmm...

Links below go to the articles referenced. [Insert legal disclaimer here.] 

Democratic rep shouldn´t escape scrutiny over Tates

Trump family member in jeopardy

Pizza and grape soda

 

Credit: The Fourth Way

I´m not so sure. Many conspiracy theorists had pretty wild scenarios back in 2020 (why *that* date, btw?) which didn´t come to pass. 

For instance, that the COVID pandemic wasn´t real. Or that the vaccines would kill off the entire White race within a few years, entire cities being emptied of people. Or that, you know, Trump would lead a fight against the Satanic paedophile cannibals running the world. How well did *that* little prediction turn out?

The most plausible conspiracy theory was that the Dems rigged the 2020 elections. After all, everyone cheats in America. And yet, Trump hasn´t presented any evidence that this was the case now when he´s back in office. Instead, he has been more busy trying to derail the Epstein Files. Indeed, the Don seems more interested in the disclosure of (obviously non-existent) UFOs!  

Are there true conspiracies? Of course there are. See above! But my main problem ever since this fracas started (around 2015) is that the opposition forces - including the out-of-control ultras - seem just as hopelessly clueless, stupid or even evil as the establishment they are opposing. They are decadent, too. 

So I don´t expect the local unfriendly paranoiac in a trailer to make any sensational new discoveries any time soon. Except maybe by chance. And even then, they would have no idea what to do about it. 

Maybe it´s time to bug out and take to the hills...

Contrarian

 

Believe it or not, but I actually agree with Cenk here. America´s foremost "Epstein-minimizer" Tracey is a born contrarian, not some kind of secret agent of the Zionist-Epstein-ite Organism or whatever people accuse him of this week. 

I saw the contrarian tendencies already back in 2020, when Tracey managed to provoke both Trump´s, Biden´s and Sanders´ fans. But during a near-chaotic election campaign (or was it a regime change operation), this kind of attitude still smacked of independent journalism. He *did* write interesting stuff back then. Still does, after a fashion. 

But when Tracey at some point (2023?) began to sound almost like a Holocaust denier on Xwitter, I realized that the man has a trollish side. Which perhaps also explains his peculiar collaborative relation with Richard Hanania, another notorious troll/gadfly (you know, the Palestinian-American who supports the Israeli far right). That is: he´s trolling on the opposite side of the political spectrum (Tracey comes across more like a dissident liberal).

How this will end is still an open question. I´m refering of course to the Epstein Files. Born contrarians will probably be part of the American alt-media landscape for years to come...

A spellbounding transformation

 

Independent reporter Michael Tracey argues that Tulsi Gabbard is super-opportunist even by the standards of US politics. Indeed, her opportunism is almost irrational, since her position within the Trump administration apparently doesn´t come with much power anyway. 

Maybe. But there is one aspect Tracey never mentions. Gabbard is a member of a mysterious religious sect, Science of Identity, led by one Chris Butler. There is no evidence that she is Butler´s intelligencer or infiltrator in Washington DC, but I can´t help wondering. During her political career, Tulsi Gabbard has befriended the DNC, Bernie Sanders, Joe and Jill Biden, and now Donald Trump. Which makes no sense...unless somebody really wants to have (dis)info on everyone in DC.

A more mundane explanation, I suppose, would be that Gabbard is a BJP asset. Her contacts with Hindu nationalists were apparently quite extensive already during her "leftist" period. Perhaps PM Modi uses her as a listening post and lobbyist? Maybe Modi correctly predicted Trump´s victory in 2024 and quietly told Gabbard to support him? 

Of course, there is yet another possibility: Gabbard is crazy. Not in the clinical sense, of course, but in the everyday sense of that term. She´s something of a kook, which explains why she is still a member of Butler´s New Religious Movement (a peculiar breakaway from the Hare Krishna). I admit that I´m kind of weirded out by the Gabbardian situation myself!

Link below.  

The spellbounding transformation of Tulsi Gabbard

Long memory

 

I´m old enough to remember when the liberal pundits gravely told us that QAnon are wrong since they believe in secret elite cabals consisting of Satanists who are trafficking children, yada yada.

Now, the same lubberals are busy releasing photos from the Epstein files. And people wonder why nobody trusts politicians (or pundits) anymore...

But sure, no Satanic dungeons (yet) so I suppose they still got half of their story straight!   

QAnon strikes again

 

- Let´s dance, QAnon are funny!

Apparently, some Trump supporters - perhaps worried by the discrepancy between Trump´s "anti-war isolationism" and his war moves against Venezuela - are trying to dust off the old conspiracy theory that the Red regime in Caracas rigged the 2020 elections in Biden´s favor.

In other words: ideas taken from the QAnon cult are being used to justify something I assume most QAnon-ites would usually oppose. Not because they like Maduro, but because they are...you know...isolationist or something.

That being said, given that the Republicans seem to swim in Russian and Qatari money, is it *entirely* impossible that the Dems might have been compromised by some sly Venezuelan operative back in the days? Not really, although I frankly doubt it in this case. It seems Late Stage Empire politics in the United States are super-corrupted and entirely devoid of any principles whatsoever, making it possible for any foreign actor with more gold than scruples to make headway in DC.

Perhaps it´s time for Norway to take one for the team, hand over millions of oil dollars to some suitable political faction in Amerikwa, and make them do *our* bidding for a change? Just being NATO allies apparently doesn´t work anymore...    

Epiphanies

 

I don´t doubt that this is true, but...a case *could* be made that Trump was indeed inciting the crowds on January 6, 2021. I mean, dude! Why the BBC nevertheless feels the need to crudely manipulate footage from the occasion is, of course, an interesting question...

The right´s George Floyd moment

 

Some links on the fall out after the Charlie Kirk assassination. First, Michael Tracey protests cancel culture both left and right. Next up: Trump apparently used the FCC´s chair to pressure ABC into firing Jimmy Kimmel. Finally, it seems Ted Cruz (!) is criticizing the FCC´s actions. Does the senator from Texas "want out"? Hmmm...

The Right finally gets its George Floyd moment

How Brendan Carr helped take down Jimmy Kimmel

"Dangerous as hell": Ted Cruz compares FCC chair´s threats to mob tactics

Why I left politics

 

1. 1. A crazy but mildly entertaining rant I posted here in 2020, which may or may not explain why I left politics, at least after a fashion...
   2. 2. 
         Tidlösa July 18, 2020 at 8:56 PM

         Amazing that British group "Socialist Action" still supports China. Might as well stop pretending, endorse Joe Stalin. Or didn't the Russians deliver the thirty pieces of silver?
2. 
   Tidlösa July 18, 2020 at 9:00 PM

   Maybe they should endorse Joe Biden, too, while there is still time?

   
   
4. 
   Tidlösa July 22, 2020 at 11:56 PM

   Still waiting for the American and British revolutionary left to officially endorse Joe Biden.

   
   
5. 
   Tidlösa July 22, 2020 at 11:59 PM

   Remoaners, Corona Karens, Biden bros, shills for China...the far left is really a sorry lot.
   
   1914 was the tragedy, this is the FARCE.

   
   
6. 
   Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:02 AM

   They actually topple Lincoln and Grant statues, why should I take these petit bourgeois crackpots seriously?

   
   
7. 
   Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:04 AM

   I agree there is systemic racism in America. Ironically, BLM proves it since most BLM protesters are White college kids appropriating Black struggles! It's bizarre, really really weird...

   
   
9. 
   Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:19 AM

   I agree with the liberals that the US should stay in Syria and Afghanistan, but I'm surprised that this is now considered a "leftist" position, lol.

   
   
10. 
    Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:21 AM

    Could we get Antifa to protest in support of US troops in, say, northern Syria? Ha ha, basic bitches!

    
    
11. 
    Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:23 AM

    At this point, most leftists are simply useless tools of some establishment faction or clique. Why even bother with them anymore?

    
    
12. 
    Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:24 AM

    Seriously considering becoming a rightist, why bother with the left anymore?

    
    
13. 
    Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:28 AM

    The 2020 left is a hybrid between Queers, John Bolton and Chinese genocide, I mean, what the fuck.

    
    
14. 
    Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:30 AM

    Well, at least it's an interesting psy-op...

    
    
15. 
    Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:33 AM

    Of course, a large segment of the left became globo-liberal assets already during the 1990's.

    
    
16. 
    Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:36 AM

    After being the useless fools of Soviet imperialism, they seamlessly morphed into Clintonistas. OK, thanx for your services, lol.

    
    
17. 
    Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:38 AM

    Will they morph again? That seems unlikely at this point. They will go down with the entire post-Soviet world "order".

    
    
18. 
    Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:39 AM

    They wanted to kill the West, now they are committing suicide. Goodbye!

    
    
19. 
    Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:41 AM

    Had I been a globo-liberal, I would have thanked the soft and Trotskyite left for their support for Clinton, Bush, Obama and Biden!

    
    
20. 
    Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:46 AM

    What will you do in the decades ahead, when populism, resource wars and climate change will dominate politics? You *do* realize that both globo-liberalism and revolutionary socialism are FUCKED, right?

    
    
21. 
    Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:48 AM

    It's over for you at this point, by 2030 or 2040,none of you will be left!

    
    
22. 
    Tidlösa July 23, 2020 at 12:48 AM

    Note the double entendre in the previous posting...

An uncomfortable truth

 

Tonight´s AI essay. 

Are there any figures indicating how many workers (or working class voters) voted for Donald Trump in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 US presidential elections?

Yes, although exact numbers can be hard to pinpoint, there are several reliable estimates and studies indicating how many working-class or blue-collar voters supported Donald Trump in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 U.S. presidential elections. The data comes from exit polls, academic studies, and voter file analyses, with "working class" often defined as voters without a four-year college degree or by occupation/income.

---

🔹 2016 Election

Definition Used: Voters without a college degree (often used as a proxy for working class)

• Trump won 67% of white non-college voters, according to CNN exit polls.

• He won about 52% of all voters without a college degree.

• Among union households, Trump performed surprisingly well: 43% of union households voted for Trump, compared to 51% for Clinton.

• In Rust Belt states (e.g., Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio), white working-class voters were critical to Trump's narrow victories.

Estimate: About 40–45% of the total working-class vote nationwide went to Trump, with white working-class support reaching nearly 2/3.

---

🔹 2020 Election

• Trump maintained strong support among white working-class voters, winning 64% of them (Pew Research, validated voter study).

• His performance among non-white working-class voters improved slightly from 2016, especially among Latino men.

• Among all voters without a four-year degree, Trump won about 54% (vs. Biden’s 44%).

Estimate: Trump received a slight majority (54%) of working-class votes, especially from white and rural voters. Biden did better with union households than Clinton had.

---

🔹 2024 Election (Early Data/Estimates)

Because full data is still being collected and analyzed, most numbers come from early exit polls and academic projections.

• Trump again won a majority of working-class voters (especially non-college whites).

• According to early Edison exit polls:

  • Trump won 65–70% of white non-college voters.

  • He made further inroads with working-class Latinos and some Black voters, especially men.

• In states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, working-class turnout was again a key battleground.

Preliminary Estimate: Trump won 55–58% of working-class voters in 2024, showing continued dominance with white working-class voters and modest gains with others.

---

🧠 Notes on Definitions

• "Working class" is not a perfect category; some studies use:

  • Educational attainment (no college degree),

  • Occupation (manual labor, service, manufacturing),

  • Income levels (lower-middle to middle income),

  • Or union membership (for organized labor subset).

• Trump’s rhetoric on trade, immigration, and “America First” themes consistently appealed to parts of the working class who felt economically left behind or culturally alienated.

---

📊 Summary Table

Election Year	Working-Class Voter Support for Trump	Key Details
2016	~45% overall; ~67% white non-college	High swing in Rust Belt; anti-globalization message resonated
2020	~54% overall; ~64% white non-college	Strong retention; slight gains among working-class Latinos
2024	~55–58% overall (est.)	Strong white working-class base; modest minority gains

---

If you'd like, I can provide state-by-state breakdowns or focus on union households or non-white working-class voters as subgroups.

There were claims in 2020 (based on opinion polls before the elections) that Trump´s support among White workers were going down. But it seems that he gained more such voters in the elections?

You're absolutely right to point out the discrepancy. In the run-up to the 2020 election, many pre-election opinion polls suggested that Donald Trump was losing support among white working-class voters, particularly in key swing states. However, post-election data from validated voter studies and exit polls tell a different story: Trump actually held onto — and in some cases modestly increased — his support among white working-class voters compared to 2016.

Here’s what happened in more detail:

---

🔄 Expectations vs Reality: White Working-Class Vote in 2020

🔹 What the Polls Predicted (Pre-Election 2020):

• Several major polls (e.g. Quinnipiac, NYT/Siena, Pew) suggested erosion in Trump’s support among:

  • White non-college voters, especially women.

  • Union households in Rust Belt states.

• The narrative was that Biden was doing better with working-class whites than Clinton had.

• Pollsters cited Trump's perceived mismanagement of COVID, economic uncertainty, and fatigue among moderate voters.

➤ For example, a September 2020 Monmouth poll had Trump trailing among white working-class voters in Wisconsin, which turned out to be incorrect.

---

🔹 What Actually Happened (Post-Election 2020):

According to Pew Research Center's validated voter study and Edison exit polls:

• White working-class voters backed Trump by ~64%, very close to his 2016 margin.

• Trump’s support held steady or even improved in rural areas, and he deepened margins in parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.

• Biden improved slightly among white working-class women, but not nearly enough to offset Trump’s dominance with men in that group.

🔍 Pew’s 2020 report: Among white voters without a four-year degree:

• Trump: 64%

• Biden: 35%

This was about the same as 2016 (when Trump got 67% and Clinton 28% among that group per CNN exit polls).

---

🧠 Why Were the Polls Wrong?

Several reasons explain the mismatch:

1. Polling error among non-college whites:

   • Many pollsters underrepresented or misweighted this group.

   • Some white working-class voters are less likely to respond to polls, skewing samples.

2. Social desirability bias:

   • Some respondents may not have admitted voting for Trump in polls, especially after media criticism of his presidency.

3. Turnout models were off:

   • Many polls underestimated the high turnout among rural and working-class whites, especially in red counties.

4. Late shifts:

   • Trump’s strong messaging on reopening the economy and culture war themes galvanized working-class support in the final weeks.

---

🧾 Summary

Factor	Polls (Pre-2020)	Actual Result
White working-class support	Predicted to drop (esp. women)	Stayed stable or rose slightly
Swing state working class	Biden projected to gain ground	Trump retained or expanded
Turnout	Expected moderate turnout in rural areas	High turnout among Trump base

---

🧭 Takeaway

Trump's core strength among white working-class voters — especially men, rural voters, and those in the Midwest — remained very strong in 2020, despite polls suggesting weakening support. This group has been a pillar of his electoral coalition, and pollsters have struggled to capture their preferences accurately.

If you're interested, I can also show county-level shifts in working-class regions between 2016 and 2020.

Did more workers vote for Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024 than for previous Republican presidential candidates?

Yes — more workers voted for Donald Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024 than for previous Republican presidential candidates, both in absolute numbers and in terms of share of the working-class vote, especially among white, non-college-educated voters.

Here’s a breakdown:

---

🔹 1. Trump vs. Past GOP Candidates (Absolute Numbers)

Because overall voter turnout has been increasing, it's important to look at both raw vote totals and percentage share of working-class voters.

🗳 Estimated Working-Class Votes for GOP Candidates:

Year	GOP Candidate	Working-Class Vote (Est.)	Notes
2008	John McCain	~33–35 million	Obama won white working class narrowly in some states
2012	Mitt Romney	~35–38 million	Romney won 59% of white working class
2016	Donald Trump	~40–45 million	Trump won 67% of white non-college voters
2020	Donald Trump	~45–50 million	Strong retention + gains among Latino workers
2024	Donald Trump	~47–52 million (est.)	Continued strength among white workers, growing appeal among others

🔍 These are estimates using:

• Exit polls

• Census voter turnout reports

• Pew and ANES data

---

🔹 2. Share of the Working-Class Vote

Trump not only got more working-class votes in total due to higher turnout, but also outperformed prior Republicans in percentage terms, especially with:

• White working-class voters (non-college)

• Rural and small-town voters

• Some segments of working-class Latinos and Black men (modest but measurable gains)

📊 White Working-Class Vote (No 4-Year Degree):

Year	GOP Share of White Working-Class Vote
2008	~58% (McCain)
2012	~59% (Romney)
2016	67% (Trump)
2020	64% (Trump)
2024	~65–70% (Trump) (exit poll est.)

Trump’s 2016 performance was the highest for Republicans in modern history, particularly in the Midwest and Rust Belt.

---

🔹 3. Why Did More Workers Support Trump Than Past Republicans?

Key Factors:

• Anti-elite, anti-globalization rhetoric resonated with economically dislocated voters.

• Trade policy, tariffs, and immigration restrictionism were seen as pro-worker (especially in manufacturing).

• Cultural messaging on patriotism, religion, guns, and traditional values appealed to white working-class voters.

• Trump de-emphasized traditional GOP orthodoxy (like entitlement reform) that had alienated many working people under Bush and Romney.

• He also made gains among non-white working-class voters (Latino men, some Black working-class voters) by 2020 and more so in 2024.

---

🧾 Summary

✅ Yes, Trump got more working-class votes (especially white non-college voters) than previous GOP candidates — both in numbers and percentage.

📈 Trump expanded the Republican base among workers in a way not seen since Reagan, particularly in the Midwest, Appalachia, and rural areas.

🔄 His support shifted the class balance of the Republican coalition — from a party of business and suburbs to one more dominated by working-class, rural, and non-college voters.

---

If you're interested, I can also provide comparisons between Trump and Reagan among working-class voters — or explore how union households shifted over the years.

Yes, how did union household shift between pre-Trump Republican candidates and Trump?

Great question. The union household vote has long been a stronghold of the Democratic Party, but Donald Trump made notable inroads, especially compared to earlier Republican candidates. Let’s break down how union household support shifted from pre-Trump Republicans (like McCain and Romney) to Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024.

---

🔹 What Is the “Union Household Vote”?

In exit polls, a union household is defined as any household where someone (voter or family member) belongs to a labor union. This includes both public- and private-sector unions.

Historically:

• Democrats won ~60–70% of union households in most elections since FDR.

• Republicans consistently struggled with this bloc — until Trump.

---

📊 Union Household Voting Trends (2000–2024)

Year	GOP Candidate	GOP % of Union Households	Democrat %	Notes
2000	George W. Bush	37%	62% (Gore)	Bush improved slightly from 1996
2004	George W. Bush	40%	59% (Kerry)	Higher turnout in Midwest helped Dems
2008	John McCain	40%	59% (Obama)	Obama strong in union Midwest
2012	Mitt Romney	40%	58% (Obama)	No major GOP gains
2016	Donald Trump	43–44%	~51% (Clinton)	Biggest GOP share in decades
2020	Donald Trump	~45%	~52% (Biden)	Slight improvement again
2024	Donald Trump	Est. 46–48%	~50% (Biden)	Gains among white and private-sector union members

---

🔄 What Changed with Trump?

🔺 Republican Gains Under Trump:

• Trump outperformed McCain and Romney by 3–8 points with union households.

• He flipped working-class union voters in Rust Belt states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan).

• His message resonated with older, white, male union members, especially in construction, manufacturing, and energy.

🔻 Democratic Retention:

• Democrats still won union households overall, largely due to:

  • Public sector unions (teachers, government employees)

  • Racially diverse unions (e.g., SEIU, hospitality workers)

  • Female union members, who leaned more Democratic

---

🧠 Key Factors in the Shift

✅ Why Trump Gained:

• Anti-globalization, anti-NAFTA stance

• Strong emphasis on manufacturing jobs, coal, and energy independence

• Messaging on illegal immigration and trade protectionism

• Appeal to cultural conservatism and “anti-elite” identity

🛑 Why Democrats Still Led:

• Union leadership and organized campaigns favored Democrats

• Strong support from public-sector and service unions

• Continued alignment with labor rights, healthcare, and minimum wage

---

🧾 Summary

Donald Trump broke decades of Republican underperformance among union households, raising GOP support from ~40% under Bush/Romney to 45–48% by 2024.

His gains were strongest among white, male, private-sector union workers in the Midwest and Rust Belt, and they helped flip key states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

However, Democrats still held the overall union household majority, especially through support from women, minorities, and public-sector unions.

---

If you want, I can go deeper into specific unions (e.g., Teamsters, UAW, teachers) or provide county-level examples of heavily unionized areas that swung toward Trump.