Saturday, November 9, 2019

Last night of the proms

Anthony Eden, British PM during Suez Crisis


Swedish history professor Dick Harrison has been very productive lately, almost creating a cottage industry all his own of abridged versions (or are they just condensed) of his own voluminous tomes. Not a moment too soon – although I *have* read some of Harrison´s doorstoppers, there are only so many hours in a day, so the slim editions of his oeuvres on everything from Northern crusades to the Thirty-Year War are welcome to say the least. They are still grossly overpriced, though – that is, until a recent discount campaign strangely coinciding with Halloween.

“Brittiska Imperiet: Uppgång och Fall” is a 166-page work on the rise and fall of the British Empire. The author also tries to teach us a thing or two about the French revolution, the Napoleonic Wars, World War I and World War II, including why Hitler lost Operation Barbarossa and other topics not directly connected to British imperial history. It *is* somewhat bewildering, if you are entirely new to these topics, so in a worst case scenario, I suppose you have to read the main work, “Englands historia” in two volumes. Devouring books about French and German history presumably helps, too!

Harrison´s take on the British Empire is mostly a critical one. The British presumably like to remember Livingstone and his gentlemanly fight against slavery, but overall, there are very few Mr Livingstones in this story. The trans-Atlantic slave trade, destruction of the Indian textile industry, the opium war against China, the concentration camps during the Boer Wars, the extermination of the Tasmanians, incompatible promises to Jews and Arabs during World War I – overall, it´s not a pretty story.  Meanwhile, working class slums and sheer misery was the lot of many ordinary Brits back home in the imperial metropolis. Harrison points out that the empire, despite territorial gains, became weaker after World War I, and might very well have lost the war against Germany had it not been for the resolute intervention of the United States. It became even weaker after World War II, when the US definitely took over as the sole Western superpower. The effective end of the empire came in 1956 when the United States joined the Soviet Union and demanded a British withdrawal from the Suez Canal.

Yet, the empire still lives on, culturally speaking. Indeed, it seems to be stronger than ever, as can be seen in our constant fascination with Victorian culture, Charles Dickens, the detective characters of Arthur Conan Doyle or Agatha Christie, Robin Hood and king Arthur, and of course British pop music. And yes, I´m writing this in the English language – had William Jennings Bryan been US president in 1914, I assume I would have addressed you in German!

How does Harrison believe that England went from a backwater to an empire? He points to several factors. Ironically, the relative isolation of the English on an island is one reason. It made their territory difficult to invade from the mainland, while also giving the English and British rulers an opportunity to abstain from continental European affairs. Instead, they could concentrate their resources on overseas expansion, building up a strong navy and merchant fleet in the process. The American Revolution was, in Harrison´s view, almost an accident – for the first and only time, Britain´s enemies united (sort of) against Perfidious Albion, leading to the loss of 13 colonies in North America, the future United States. Otherwise, Britannia really did rule the waves, and Britain became even stronger due to the Industrial Revolution and its technological innovations. Still, Harrison constantly emphasizes the military side of the imperial equation. Without a strong fleet and superior weaponry, Britain would presumably not have been able to patrol the globe in defense of their dominions, no matter what economic strength they could project. Yes, Harrison is a left-liberal pacifist, and evidently no libertarian! At some point, the empire simply became unsustainable, Britain being forced to evacuate its position to the United States.

I suppose this has certain consequences for the future trajectory of the American Empire…

In contrast to good ol´ Britannia, the United States doesn´t have any friendly ally it can pass the cudgel to once American Empire goes the way of the British ditto. America has only enemies and geopolitical competitors, Russia and China being the strongest ones. This might lead a citizen of good will to draw the conclusion that perhaps the US should make more friends, but so far this eminently sensible strategy doesn´t have as many takers as it perhaps should. Which doesn´t bode well for the future. It´s also interesting to speculate if American culture will be as dominant as British ditto still is, despite its empire disappearing. I almost suspect the answer is “no”: American culture, really pop culture, is too closely associated with American economic ascendancy and abundance. I wouldn´t be surprised if it´s replaced on a broad front with *British* culture, say weird retro-nostalgia about the Victorians…

With that, I end these reflections.

Donald Trumps TOTALA triumf

Vår Herre och Gud firar Berlinmurens fall med sina lojala vasaller

Aftonbladet erkänner att Donald Trump med väldigt stor sannolikhet kommer att vinna valet 2020. Jag vet inte om töntarna på DN fortfarande shillar för Joe Biden, men AB verkar till slut ha krupit till korset och insett att varken han, Warren eller Sanders kan besegra Gud-Kejsaren Donaldo El Trumpo. 

Har också noterat undergångsstämningen på AB i samband med 30-årsminnet av Berlinmurens fall, det som ju borde vara ett 30-årsjubileum. Det blev visst inte som vänsterliberalerna tänkte sig. Och inte som högerliberalerna tänkte sig heller, eftersom DN uppmanar oss att festa "som om det vore 1989". Ja, men det är ju inte 1989. Den bisarra och antagligen fejkade optimismen från migrantkrisen ("Sverige har aldrig varit tryggare", "det här är bra för Sveriges ekonomi") är som bortblåst också. Och Expressen? De har redan dragit slutsatserna och omvandlat sig till SD:s informella kvällstidning... 

Jag tror att medieetablissemanget äntligen insett att det är över. Den nya världsordningen är kaputt. Insikten verkar ha slagit dem som en blixt från Jehovas klara himmel i oktober, under händelserna i Syrien. 

Det kommer att bli ännu fler insikter av detta slag framöver, vänta ni bara!

Why I don´t like limits to growth




“The Limits to Growth” (LTG) is the near-legendary book from 1972 attributed to Dennis Meadows, Donella Meadows, Jörgen Randers and William W Behrens III. I say “attributed”, because according to Dennis Meadows (who is the copyright holder and often regarded as the main author), the book was really written by his wife Donella. LTG is almost infamous for being the book everyone talks about and nobody reads, and in an interview made in 2012, Dennis Meadows said that even LTG´s admirers probably didn´t really understand it. Both LTG and the so-called Club of Rome, which commissioned the work, have acquired demonic status in a wide variety of conspiracy theories. A bizarre detail is that some of the people who attacked the work back in 1972 are still attacking it today, for instance the LaRouche Movement!

I recently decided to grab this bull (or is it a Satanic goat) by its horns and actually read the book. Or at least look through it – it´s not an easy read, although it´s less daunting than it looks like, with its strange and hard-to-understand graphs. If you don´t feel up to it, begin by listening to some lecture or interview given by Dennis Meadows on YouTube. One reason why the work has been misunderstood might be the sensational marketing. My copy comes with scary blurbs predicting fast collapse, inevitable doom and (at best) a ten year period in which to solve the problems, or else! The real predictions, such as they are, of Meadows & Co are less apocalyptic but precisely for that reason more serious. 

“The Limits to Growth” is based on two presuppositions which the authors never bother proving, since they regarded them as obvious – something Dennis Meadows later regretted. One is that growth is always exponential. The other is that Earth´s resources really are limited. The conclusion is therefore über-obvious: exponential growth is impossible on a finite planet. The authors admit that without extremely detailed data, it´s impossible to “predict” exactly when resources will run out. The point of their models is to show the dynamics of a system in which everything (or almost everything) grows exponentially except the actual resources. Still, LTG does contain predictions of a sort. The authors´ models show that if growth continues to be exponential, Earth´s resources will run out at some point during the 21st century, specifically in the middle or late 21st century. And yes, the transition period from exponential growth to contraction will be brief, perhaps only a decade or so. This could indeed be called a collapse. In recent interviews, Dennis Meadows have pointed out that we are right on track to a mid-century collapse, perhaps beginning already in 2030, since all curves are still “heading upwards” in the usual exponential fashion, except food production, which is actually growing less than LTG predicted. That everything is growing is a good sign…if you think resources are infinite. If not, good luck and God help you!

An important point made by LTG is that you can´t stop exponential growth in just one area – if you do, growth in other sectors will eventually lead the system to collapse anyway. Thus, zero population growth doesn´t help in and of itself if resource extraction, food production and pollution continue to rise exponentially. This should give pause to those who believe that less people will give the remaining ones (i.e. the Western upper and middle classes) enough resources to continue the party more or less indefinitely. Although “The Limits to Growth” hardly mentions climate change, they do include pollution as an exponential growth curve. In several of their future scenarios, economic growth is indeed stopped by an extreme increase of environmental pollution. More food production doesn´t save the day either, unless population and pollution is sharply regulated. An increase in food production will simply lead to more people and resource extraction, leading to a collapse just as in the other scenarios. And since growth is exponential, even a doubling of the available resources will postpone the collapse for only a few decades! Thus, none of the standard solutions to our predicament supported by both leftists and right-wingers (find more resources, produce more food, curtail population growth) are powerful enough to break free from the limits to growth on a finite planet.

So what is the solution? The authors frankly admit that they don´t have any detailed political prescriptions. They can only offer advice in principle: do away with exponential growth, or collapse will inevitably happen. Thus, only a system where population, resources, pollution and food production are “frozen” and remain in equilibrium is sustainable. LTG does indicate that solutions must be global in character, and that they should include some kind of international redistribution system whereby the richer nations share their resources with the poorer ones. On one point the warning of the authorial team is particularly dire: equilibrium must be reached ASAP. If equilibrium isn´t reached until the year 2000 (almost 30 years after the book was published), collapse will happen during the 21st century anyway, due to run-away population growth, resource depletion and other problems. In *that* sense, “The Limits to Growth” really did believe that we only have (or rather had) about 10 years left to save the world, as indicated by UN Secretary-General U Thant in a statement included in my copy.

LTG has been criticized for not viewing technological progress as exponential. However, it´s difficult to know what this could possibly even *mean*, unless it simply indicates that new technology uses up previously untapped resources, say turning locust swarms into food, or dead people into soylent green. But even then, there is an obvious limit to growth: energy isn´t unlimited on a finite planet. Nor, of course, are the resources themselves. The critics of LTG really envisage a future in which we use cold fusion power to feed 20 billion people with bread made of hard Martian rock… Of course, no such inventions are even on the horizon today, and as the system is slowly grinding to a halt, chances are we´ll never see them in the future either. What we will see is probably something similar to the scenario in LTG, or – if we´re lucky – a slightly slower transition from here to there.

I can´t say I like that prospect.

Right on track



An interview with Dennis Meadows, co-author of "Limits to Growth", from 2012. Speaks for itself... 

VEGAN Zombie Apocalypse




A serious posting by Thomas Sheridan, in which he describes the possible fallout of a coronal mass ejection, sometimes referred to as a “Carrington event”. Sheridan, who is an occultist with pagan tendencies, claims to have had a revelation of sorts that this might happen during our lifetimes. In other clips, he is denying climate change, so I suppose this is his alternative doomsday scenario. 

Or maybe not quite doomsday, since Sheridan is at pains to point out that a coronal mass ejection won´t affect the entire world, nor are its consequences completely impossible to cope with. Civilization in the nations hit by the cosmic rays might even be restored, perhaps after a couple of years. 

Of course, our favorite crazy Irishman wouldn´t be himself if he didn´t include *some* humor in an otherwise dark clip…yes, this time it´s about vegans being forced to eat human flesh. 

I admit that a vegan zombie apocalypse would be an original way to “try out a new thing”, as our hippie friends would no doubt put it!

McNamara´s folly




This is a disturbing presentation given by Hamilton Gregory, author of the book “McNamara´s Folly: The Use of Low-IQ Troops in the Vietnam War”. I haven´t read the book and I never even heard of Project 100,000 until I accidentally stumbled on this clip on YouTube just this week.

Apparently, Robert McNamara, the US Defense Secretary under JFK and LBJ, decided to use “low-IQ men” as cannon fodder during the Vietnam War, due to manpower shortages. Neither college students nor National Guardsmen could be easily sent to Vietnam for political reasons. The low-IQ men, who had all failed the standard aptitude tests of the US military, were drafted instead. They were derogatorily known as “McNamara´s Morons” or the “Moron Corps” by the other soldiers.

Many of them really were mentally handicapped, some having as low IQ as 40. Gregory describes several absurd situation during the training of these men (he was one of their trainers) and how they couldn´t understand even the simplest task, such as throwing a hand grenade in an arch rather than a straight line. They were dangerous in the field, too. Gregory mentions a low-IQ guard who opened fire and killed an officer at point blank range, not understanding that he wasn´t a hostile. This man was subsequently murdered by the soldiers who had served under the officer.

McNamara believed, or claimed to believe, that the mentally handicapped soldiers would get their IQs boosted by the military training, for instance by watching video tapes (?!). Obviously, this never happened, even apart from the fact that video tapes were the last thing the military wanted to include in basic training. McNamara never apologized for his mistake. According to Wiki, McNamara´s strongly “quantitative” view of the Vietnam War gave rise to the expression “McNamara Fallacy”, which means to disregard all factors except those which can be easily measured (in this case the sheer number of troops, the body count of the enemy, and so on).

As I said, disturbing material in many ways.

The Alpha Experience




“Theodore Roosevelt and the Western Experience” is a documentary about Theodore Roosevelt, who was US president from 1901 to 1909.

It´s virtually impossible to cram in all of TR´s life into one documentary, and many things are conspicuously absent or mentioned only in passing, such as the Panama Canal or the Bull Moose Party. The documentary centers on TR´s macho image and manly exploits in the Wild West, but also on his family life. On the political front, the producers paint TR as liberal, progressive and Green – which he, of course, was. However, I noticed that some conservatives are trying to portray Theodore Roosevelt (whose politics had a family likeness to those of Franklin Delano Roosevelt – pun intended) as one of their own.

Personally, I find TR´s politics fascinating, since he seems to have combined things often considered incompatible (rightly or wrongly): elite status, progressivism, populism, imperialism and conservationism. I cannot help thinking that we need a guy like TR today, but unfortunately we live on the far side of the peak oil curve, so combining say populism and conservationism might not be an election winner! With that, I leave it up to you to watch the documentary and reflect further on the Western experience…

Facts are the enemies of truth

The other guy 

The second part of John Michael Greer´s essay analyzing the sheer craziness of present political discourse in America and (perhaps) the rest of the West. Some *really* insane material in this one!

Dancers at the End of Time (Part 2)


Quack king





“Corn Flake Kings: The Kellogg Brothers” is a documentary about – wait for it – Kellogg´s Corn Flakes, or rather the very strange pre-history of this quintessential American breakfast food.

The roots of Corn Flakes go back to John Harvey Kellogg (1852-1943), a quackish medical doctor who had originally been a member of the Seventh Day Adventist Church. J H Kellogg founded the Battle Creek Sanatorium in Battle Creek, Michigan, where he and his staff offered a wide range of positively weird cures, including “hydrotherapy” and sexual abstinence. In all fairness to Kellogg, the level of medicine and health care in the United States (and the rest of the world) was still dismally low at the time, and he did know *some* things, such as the necessity of exercise or the need for strict hygiene in operation rooms.

J H Kellogg´s younger brother Will Keith Kellogg worked as an underpaid secretary to the older Kellogg (whose behavior progressively became more and more eccentric) until he had enough and decided to strike out on his own. Will Keith´s salvation came when he added sugar to the cereal flakes invented by John Harvey. The resulting product, later known as Kellogg´s Corn Flakes, took the local community by storm, then the rest of America, and…well, I think you had it for breakfast yourself just this morning!

The break between the two brothers became life long, and in a parallel development, John Harvey was also expelled by the Adventists. (The documentary says very little about this, however.) Despite everything, John Harvey continued to promote his ideas about health until his death, a typical true believer, while W K Kellogg became a successful businessman and philanthropist (founder of the Kellogg Foundation).

Overall, a quite interesting documentary, similar in some ways to “Potions or Poisons”, which also takes us to the crazy “quack fad” period in US history. (Reviewed by me elsewhere on this blog.)

Saturday, November 2, 2019

This account has been hijacked


Peacock: I have a few complaints, My Lord, about a crazy blogger named Ashtar Command. He is trolling the conservationist movement again. I feel threatened! I mean, what if somebody decides to exterminate me and mine?

Krishna: Oh, that guy. Yeah, I remember him. Don´t worry, Ash is quite harmless. He left my transcendental abode 15 billion years ago...

Deer: I aint complaining, Lord Krishna, I aint complaining!