Jonah calling

"One with Nineveh" by Paul and Anne Ehrlich is a book about the present and coming ecological crisis. It's less alarmist than Paul Ehrlich's old classic "The Population Bomb", which obviously underestimated the impact of the green revolution. But then, "One with Nineveh" is a new book, published in 2004.

Paul and Anne Ehrlich still believe that population growth is at the root of many of our problems. Although the rate of population growth is much lower today than 40 years ago, the world population will still increase by a couple of billions until a peak is reached around 2050. The population of the United States (294 million) will be 350 million in 2025 and 420 million in 2050. To the authors, this is bad news.

Due to the green revolution, it's technically possible to feed the present day world population provided that resources are more equitably distributed. But will it be possible to continue doing so in the decades ahead, when the population continues to rise? With water becoming more scarce, the oceans overfished, all potential agricultural land already occupied, and climate change ahead, Paul and Anne Ehrlich are pessimistic. The perspective is one of more resource wars, increased food prices and more environmental destruction.

They do discuss a few possible solutions, however. One is a massive conversion of pesticide-dependent agriculture to organic farming. Another solution might be massive investment in solar power. The authors are surprisingly positive to genetically engineered crops. The Ehrliches further point out that better educational opportunities for women, government care of the elderly and improved access to water and sanitation will tend to slow down population growth. However, the authors also believe that less hand outs to large families might do the trick, and occasionally imply that the Western nations should limit immigration from the poorer countries (a contentious position, to say the least). They then discuss the pros and cons of the Chinese "one child" policy.

"One with Nineveh" contains chapters on pretty much everything dealing with the ecological crisis: overpopulation, overconsumption, the role of technology, globalization and "the American Empire"... Indeed, the book is almost encyclopaedic and frankly made my head spin the first time I read it! I got the gist of it only after a second reading. It also contains many interesting references. That the crisis is severe is shown by the fact that "One with Nineveh" deals with climate change as only one problem among many.

The human predicament is a dire one indeed. On the one hand, the rich nations have an unsustainable level of growth, while being less responsible for overpopulation. (Many European nations have a shrinking population.) On the other hand, the poorer nations can stop overpopulation only by modernization, which in turn might fuel overconsumption. Finding the golden mean in all this won't be easy, especially given the fact that very little is actually being done about any of it by the politicians in charge!

Paul and Anne Ehrlich liken our civilization to the hubris of Nineveh, the "great city" of Assyria which overreached itself and fell. I suppose this makes them Jonah, the ancient prophet who preached to Nineveh and made its people repent their sins.

But will modern Nineveh listen? Or will the Great City fall?

That is the question.