Sunday, January 4, 2026

Trade off

 


Scott Carney believes that Trump traded Ukraine and Taiwan for Venezuela (a Russian and Chinese ally). There might absolutely be something to this speculation. The real question is whether Trump can pull it off. First, his administration seems split backstage between "isolationists" (or rather Western Hemisphere hegemonists) and a kind of retro-Neo-Cons with global ambitions. Second, Trump hasn´t actually occupied Venezuela with boots on the ground, so how is he supposed to run it or take its oil, if the current government simply decides to stay in power?

As matters stand now, geopolitical chaos is a more likely outcome than a neat division of the world between Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia. 

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