Wednesday, October 29, 2025

When the prophetic milieu succeeds

 


An interesting video on the baffling phenomenon of religious groups surviving prophecy failure. A large portion deals with the Lubavitcher and how they dealt with the death of their "Messiah", Rebbe Schneerson. More in passing, it also mentions Elizabeth Clare Prophet, Unarius, the Adventists and some Japanese NRMs. 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, sociological factors are crucial in securing the continued existence of an apocalyptic sect after the apocalypse fails to materialize. The Lubavitcher were a quite large group with an all-encompassing community structure and constant outreach programs. This guaranteed its survival after the crisis triggered by the Rebbe´s death. A charismatic leadership is another important factor. The leader must be able to convince the followers of the new line. Indeed, Clare Prophet´s failure of leadership might be one of the reasons why the group almost collapsed after the Montana episode. 

There must also be a "prophetic milieu" around the group. I assume Christian apocalyptic groups to some extent survive since "everyone" in Christendom believes in the Second Advent, and hence on some level share an ideological matrix even with the most deviant apocalyptic group (which thus operates within that matrix). 

Otherwise, I have to say that it´s almost fascinating to see how exactly the same excuses come up over and over again: spiritualization, "it was just a test", the followers weren´t ready, the Messiah is in occultation, and so on. 

Personally, I suspect that some kind of performative factor is also at play. Maybe a certain kind of Christians *must* sell their houses on a semi-regular basis supposedly awaiting the Rapture just to show everyone else how strong faith they have? A bit like when snake-handlers who are actually bitten by the snakes are treated as heroes rather than as failures, presumably because their snake-bites are a visible sign of their strong commitment. 

Recommended.  

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